World Cup
2010-06-29 - Spain vs Portugal
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
Football : FIFA World Cup 2010 : Second Round
Venue : Cape Town Stadium, Cape Town
Tuesday 29th June 2010, Kickoff 20:30 SA Time/19:30 BST
The Iberian rivals meet in this round of 16 match up in Cape Town on Tuesday. This is arguably the best game of the round, well at least on paper anyway.
Names like Cristiano Ronaldo, David Villa, Xavi Hernandez and Simao will just roll of the tongue in this heavyweight clash. All signs point toward a Spain win but I think they will find Portugal a very serious opponent.
Spain
Spain started very slowly with a 1-0 loss to Switzerland. After dominating possession and chances they conceded early in the 2nd half and never recovered. This result made their progression more difficult with them needing to beat Honduras and Chile. They did so winning 2-0 and 2-1 and Villa now has 3 goals and sits atop the scoring leader board.
My feeling is that Spain look very solid in defence. Of course they conceded a silly goal to Switzerland, but aside from that and a classy finish from Rodrigo Millar, the likes of Carles Puyol and Gerard Pique will lead the defence against a threatening Portuguese attack.
In the fullback roles Spain will have Joan Capdevilla and Sergio Ramos and they will need to assist their wingers in an attempt to get threatening balls into the attacking penalty area for the likes of Fernando Torres and Villa.
The midfield for Spain is all class and they have plenty left on the bench. When Francesc Fabregas fails to win a start you know you have a top-line midfield. Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets play in more defensive roles but still get involved in Spain’s attacking forays.
Xavi and Andres Iniesta are awesome attacking minded players and Iniesta’s goal against Chile was a world class finish. They combine together at Barcelona with Busquets and you would expect the midfield to begin working fluidly as they have no real excuses. Alonso is an injury concern for the Spanish with a sprained ankle. He sustained the injury against Chile and left the field immediately.
Villa and Torres have had contrasting world cups so far. Villa has been lively and looked threatening whenever he has the ball but Torres is still showing the effects of a lingering knee injury, and is a slight doubt for the Portuguese clash. If Torres misses the match Spain has able replacements in Pedro Rodriguez and Jesus Navas. Both have scored plenty of goals in the Primera Liga in the season just gone and will be able to fill Torres’ shoes aptly.
Coach Vicente Del Bosque has said that there is not a major worry over Torres and that he is likely to play. Expect the Spanish forwards to move around a lot and rely on incisive passing from the likes of Xavi and Iniesta.
Portugal
Portugal’s defence held Brazil scoreless on Friday and they will be
bolstered by that. Ricardo Costa and Duda got starts in the fullback positions against Brazil, but I felt that Queiroz was experimenting to some degree as he had Fabio Coentrao on the left wing. I expect Miguel and Coentrao to retain their spots at fullback and they will cause a couple of problems for the Spanish wingers and fullbacks.
Bruno Alves and Ricardo Carvalho lead the defence from the centre and have the imposing record of being the only side not to concede a goal this world cup. They have played Brazil and Ivory Coast so that record has to count for something, not to mention Portugal are on 19 match unbeaten streak.
In the midfield Raul Meireles and Tiago are having impressive tournaments. They both put in the necessary defensive efforts but hen look imposing when Portugal attack and this just adds to their multitude of attacking options.
I expect Simao and Ronaldo to start on the wings and their experience at national level should allow them to put the Spanish defence under pressure at times. Pedro Mendes will provide the grit as a defensive central midfielder and it will be his role to curb the influence of Xabi Alonso and Sergio Busquets.
Up front Queiroz could play with 2 and push Ronaldo forward, but I think he will stick with a sole striker. The question is does he opt for Liedson or Hugo Almeida. I personally think Almeida is the superior option and with 3 in the middle of midfield it should not allow the Spanish too much room.
The Betting Pick
I have thought about this clash for about two days now and I have come to a conclusion after going against my gut feeling. Spain have not gelled at this tournament and with Torres struggling for form they may find scoring tough against a Portuguese defence which has been the best of the tournament so far.
Portugal look more organised and with Ronaldo on their side we know how dangerous they CAN be. I think they could be serious dark horses and this will be their first major test.
The Pick :
Spain 0-1 Portugal (or 1-2)
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Portugal to qualify at 2.65 or better (MAIN BET)Take Portugal to win at 4.00 or better (SIDE BET)
