World Cup
2009-10-10 - Ukraine vs England
A Sports Betting Pick by Avesalom
Football: FIFA World Cup 2010 European Qualifiers (UEFA)
Saturday, 10th October 2009 - Kickoff 17:15
Group 6 Summary :
The three contenders of group 6 are:
England 8 games 24 points
Croatia 9 games 17 points
Ukraine 8 games 15 points
Croatia will play their final game at Kazakhstan, and are all but guaranteed the points. Ukraine plays the final game at Andorra, and should win easily too.
Therefore, Saturday game becomes a must win for Ukraine if they are to finish in 2nd spot.
Ukraine (3rd) 15 pts
With exception of Barcelona defender Chigrinskiy, there are no injury problems for Ukraine. Dynamo Kyiv defender Hacheridi who played a good game in Barcelona in a 0-2 loss should make his debut here.
Head coach Mikhaylichenko has one final chance to save his job. Ukraine needs to score here, which is a new experience for a team that is known for it's counterattacking style.
Attacking in numbers against any top side, such as England, is always a risky proposition. Ukraine was quite fortunate keeping a clean sheet in Belarus, and that, too, was a 'must win' game.
Unless Ukraine manages to score a quick goal and revert to its natural defense-oriented scheme which they usually employ playing superior opposition, there will be plenty of space for the England strikers to run.
Wayne Rooney who is about to become a father, might be the beneficiary, especially in second half when fatigue kicks in.
Likely Ukraine line up :
Mikhalyk, Ischenko, Hacheridi, Timoschuk
Kobin, Gusev
Nazarenko
Shevchenko, Voronin, Milevskiy
England
According to Ukraine assistant coach Vladimir Veremeyev, England's best XI today includes James in goal, Johnson-Ashley Cole-Allson-Terry in defense, Lampard and Barry as defensive midfielders, Lennon and Gerrard on the sides, Heskey and Rooney in front.
Rio Ferdinand is back from a calf injury, fully fit and an option for Fabio Capello in this game.
Motivation and Odds
In the first game these two teams played on April 1, 2009, England was priced as a 1.35 favorite, and won 2-1. Ukraine played their usual counter-attack game and did well to have the game tied in 2nd half. England at those odds was not an attractive proposition.
Saturday, England win is priced at 2.50. What changed in comparison to the first game?
First reason is that obviously this tournament is over for them, and first place is guaranteed with two games to play. Originally, it was believed that England might be willing to drop the game, or to play B-squad.
Second reason is that losing to Ukraine would all but ensure that Croatia does not make WC2010. Everyone should remember that it was Croatia who got in the way of England during last qualifying cycle (Euro-2008), without any tournament motivation, with their shocking 3-2 victory at Wembley.
However, it soon became clear that Fabio Capello has no intention to take foot off the gas. Apparently, he has big plans for this England team and every game is valuable preparation which is not to be wasted.
Besides, why would best players not play their best game? Because they would prefer to 'revenge' Croatia for that game two years ago? I do not believe it.
England already beat Croatia twice. Beat them well. England, for the first time in history, has a chance to get 100% points in a group stage. Coaches of top Premiership clubs are rumored to be unhappy with Capello's decision to field the best available squad in Dnipropetrovsk.
But in Capello's (and Rooney's, and Terry's) shoes wouldn't you want to make history? Become legendary with two more wins rather than make a very questionable choice to 'help' Ukraine and 'revenge' Croatia? This is one of the best coaches in the world, guiding a top side to a perfect record.
Ukraine is in desperate situation and have home turf. But both factors can hurt home team as much as help it. Ukraine will be pushed forward by the fans, and the need to get three points.
If it was Belarus or even Croatia, I would say it's an advantage for Ukraine. But playing England is a different story. This team shows discipline, controls the ball and takes very little risks. Ukraine will need to gamble trying to break that defense open.
THe Betting Verdict
In my eyes 2.50 for England to win represents phenomenal value.
Many believe that 'tournament motivation' or rather lack thereof gives Ukraine a good chance to get the points, but I think England is a team that simply doesn't know how to not play 100%.
Ukraine's best shot at second spot was game at Belarus. Team moral is low and they are up against cream of the crop of England.
Sometimes, motivation just isn't enough.
The Statistics :
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BEST BETTING TIP :
Consider :A HT/FT bet on Draw/England at 6.00
Or take England to win at 2.50
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take England Draw-No-Bet (or AH+0) at 1.86 as the main bet
