Tennis
2009-06-29 - Fernando Verdasco vs Ivo Karlovic
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Tennis: England, Wimbledon Men
Monday, 29th June 2009 - Start 14:30
Fernando Verdasco
Fernando Verdasco had a tougher match in round 3 than he, and I, expected when he came through a 4 set battle with Albert Montanes. Verdasco had looked good earlier in the tournament but the match with Karlovic is going to be his biggest test by far.
Verdasco has dropped 48 games so far in the tournament and also had a tough 2nd round match against Kristof Vliegen where 3 of the 4 sets played went to tie breaks.
The Spaniard served a very impressive 76% first serves and he won 75% of the points behind the serve. His fastest serve was 137mph and he had an average speed of 116mph. He gave up 5 chances to be broken but Montanes only converted on 1.
His returning game was not as effective as I imagined it would be, with 33% of the points won against his opponent's serve. He had 9 chances to break the Montanes serve and took 3 chances.
Ivo Karlovic
Ivo Karlovic has had his best performance at Wimbledon for some time and will be happy to have made the 2nd week here especially after his solid win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the last round. He has only lost 1 set so far in the tournament.
Unsurprisingly, Karlovic served 77% first serves in his match with Tsonga and won 86% of the points behind his serve which is incredibly high. As can be imagined with those statistics, Karlovic did not face a break point all match.
Returning is never one of the strong points for the big Croatian, and he won 21% of the points when Tsonga served. He did create 2 break point chances though and took 1 to win the 3rd set.
Karlovic hit 36 winners, many of those volleys, and made 20 unforced errors. The big man served up 46 aces as well.
Head to Head
This will be the 4th meeting between the 2 players, and Karlovic currently leads 2-1. Karlovic has won the last 2 matches between the 2, both on indoor hard courts.
The last meeting was actually in the Final of a grass court tournament in Nottingham but rain meant it was moved to a hard court indoors and Karlovic came out on top, 7-5, 6-7, 7-6.
Prediction
Fernando Verdasco has had to play some tight matches already but has shown his grit to win through, especially that 2nd round match with Vliegen when he had to win 2 of the 3 tie breakers to get through.
Karlovic is serving big which makes him a really tough prospect to beat. He would be satisfied and fully fit after the weekend off and it is going to be very very tough to break his serve.
I think this match is going to be close as would be expected with 2 servers of the capabilities of Verdasco and Karlovic. This match may be decided by who can play the tie breakers better and who can take their chances that come along.
I can see Verdasco eventually coming through this match in a tough 5 setter, 6-7, 7-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4
The Pick :
Fernando Verdasco
BEST BETTING TIP :
Fernando Verdasco WIN
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Fernando Verdasco + 1.5 games 1.83 (5/6) at Paddy Power
