English FA CUP
2009-05-30 - Chelsea vs Everton
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: England, FA Cup
Saturday 30th May 2009 - Kickoff 15:00
Chelsea (3rd - Season Rec : 25-8-5 68:24 +44)
Chelsea's season has been an up and down affair, but the arrival of Dutch maestro Guus Hiddink to run things has been a very positive move, with only the "away goal defeat" by Barcelona in the 1-1 home draw casting a negative shadow.
Chelsea have a 15-5-1 record with Hiddink in charge in all competitions, that single loss was a 0-1 defeat to Spurs at White Hart Lane, and generally they've been in very, very good form.
Chelsea Team News :
Frank Lampard has declared himself fit for Saturday's FA Cup final against Everton. The England midfielder sat out last week's win over Sunderland with a knock but will start at Wembley, with Alex and Juliano Belletti (virus) also fit.
Everton (5th - Season Rec : 17-12-9 55:37 +18)
Everton had a very good season, but sometimes it takes a close look at the stats to understand just how good.
The Toffees only lost nine times in the league and with a goal difference of +17 which is an impressive result for a club outside of the "big four". The last nine Everton victories were ALL by a margin of at least two goals with 2-0 being the most common.
Everton Team News :
Everton have also received good news on the injury front, with Phil Neville and Steven Pienaar fully fit following recent worries over hamstring problems.
That should enable David Moyes to deploy his favoured 4-5-1 formation.
Head to head
Both league matches between the two clubs this season finished 0-0.
And both games were tight physical affairs where Everton's workrate matched Chelsea, and made it very hard for the London club to turn their dominance in possesion into chances or goals.
The Betting Verdict
Although Everton have stopped Chelsea twice already this season, I feel that the large Wembley pitch might be a factor in preventing a third 0-0 result between the two sides in this match.
I know that Manchester United and Everton drew 0-0 here in the FA cup semi-final, but generally the size and scale of the surface at Wembley does mean that teams with possession do eventually wear opponents down and get chances.
With Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka up front, I feel that Chelsea do have the weapons to eventually take advantage of the dominance that Chelsea will have with the ball.
The Pick :
Chelsea 1-0 Everton
BEST BETTING TIP :
I think the CHELSEA will win, but whether that price is worth taking is another matter.The price on Everton is a "Value bet" but it's only going to come out a winner 1/4 and for the final game of the season I like to find a more "likely bet".
I'm tempted to try a couple of CORRECT SCORE BETS to raise the value :
- CHELSEA 1-0 which is 7.00 at BetFred
- CHELSEA 2-1 which is 8.50 at Victor Chandler
