English Premier
2009-05-11 - Newcastle United vs Middlesbrough
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: England, Premier League
Monday, 11th May 2009 - Kickoff 20:00
Newcastle (18th - Home Form : 4-7-6 21:27)
It's do or die time at Newcastle on Monday night, and although the "Alan Shearer factor" has not had much effect so far a look at the Newcastle home fixture list explains why.
Everton, Man United, Arsenal and Chelsea have all visited St James's Park recently in a very tough string of games, and it's not really been possible for the much vaunted crowd effect to get their side lifted.
Newcastle's four home wins have come against sides that have been leaking goals on the road, beating West Brom (34 goals), Tottenham (32 goals), Aston Villa (26 goals) and Bolton (31 goals) - so Boro's tally of 32 away goals conceded is significant.
I feel that Newcastle beleive that they can beat Middlesbrough, and that this might be the game where Newcastle get a much needed boost.
Middlesbrough (19th - Away Form : 2-2-13 9:32)
Mdidlesbrough's form has been atrocious with just two wins in their last 23 league fixtures, and both of those came at the Riverside where they beat Hull City 3-1, and surprisingly also beat Liverpool.
Away from home it's been a sorry tale of Boro conceding too many goals and usually not getting on the scoresheet themselves - as it's been 10 straight away losses now - and just two goals scored in that run.
It has to be said that in 13 seasons of monitoring my Premier League stats, I've never seen Boro being rated as lowly as they are right now. Middlesbrough are a full goal per game worse than the "average" side.
Head to Head
The head to head statistics suggest that Middlesbrough can get something from this trip. Boro have drawn on each of their last four visits to St James's Park - and have also drawn the last two clashes at the Riverside to boot.
With six draws in the last eight clashes - h2h form punters might fancy a draw - and the price is about right for fair value.
The Betting Verdict
I know that Newcastle failed against Portsmouth last time out at home drawing 0-0 - but I actually have Portsmouth at more than half a goal stronger (on average) than Middlesbrough.
I'm also prepared to ignore the Liverpool game (lost 0-3 at Anfield) as Newcastle have never really travelled well, and the Reds have been scoring for fun recently.
But this is a game the Newcastle "must win", and for once the Geordies are at home against a side that they can dominate - and so I'm going for the home win.
I'm not saying it's a banker, Boro can pull off a surprise, they've won at Villa Park this season against Aston Villa (2-1), and I've already mentioned their 2-0 home win over Liverpool.
But frankly, those are the few bright spots in a pretty bleak season, and I'd want a price of around 6.00 or more on a Boro win before I thought that I was getting a fair value bet - and the bookmaker prices are way below that.
Newcastle to win here, because if they don't then they're %*#KED
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Newcastle 2-0 Middlesbrough
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take NEWCASTLE to win at any price over even money.
