Italian Serie A
2009-05-10 - Atalanta vs Genoa
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: Italy, Serie A
Sunday, 10th May 2009 - Kickoff 14:00
Regular readers will know that I'm normally a "stats" man - but I think that this game does offer a good motivation angle with Genoa fighting for Champions League qualification against an Atalanta side with precious little to play for.
Atalanta (12th - Home Rec : 10-1-6 25:14)
Let's face it - the season is over for Atalanta, who cannot qualify for Europe now, but who are also 15 points above the relegation zone and in no trouble whatsoever.
Last weekend Atalanta looked jaded and uninterested as they lost 0-3 at 8th placed Udinese.
Add in the fact that Atalanta have lost three of their last four home games, two of them against Reggina and Chievo (who are in the bottom five).
So after these lacklustre efforts I don't expect to see a big home crowd turning up for this game.
Team News :
Ferreira Pinto and Ferdinando Coppola remain injured for the hosts while Gianpaolo Bellini and Cristiano Doni are suspended.
Genoa (5th - Away Rec : 6-5-6 13:17)
Genoa are battling hard for a Champions League spot, and sit just one point away from 4th placed Fiorentina.
Genoa also have an easy looking run-in with Chievo, Torino and Lecce to come but it's important for the Grifone, to pickup points from EVERY game as they chase Champions League football.
Away form has not been the greatest asset for Genoa, but the last few months have brought a better return and a 3-1-1 record in the last five road games, suggests that coach Gian Piero Gasperini has found a way to get Genoa performing on the road.
Team News :
A derby win over Sampdoria last weekend had conserquences as both Matteo Ferrari and Thiago Motta were sent off and both players are suspended. Goalkeeper Alessio Scarpi is still injured.
Probable Line-ups
Consigli;
Garics, Talamonti, Manfredini, Peluso;
Defendi, Guarente, Cigarini, Padoin;
Valdes, Floccari
Genoa :
Rubinho;
Biava, Papastathopoulos, Bocchetti;
Rossi, Milanetto, Juric, Criscito;
Sculli, Milito, Palladino
The Betting Verdict
Genoa have a real reason to be chasing victory in this game and with a 5-0-2 record in their last seven matches it would be fair to say that the Grifone are the form side.
Atalanta must be thinking about a summer break (and possible transfers) and with three losses in their last home four games against mediocre opposition, Atalanta are hardly making their home games a fortress.
So despite my season stats and ratings saying that Atalatna should hold an edge - I favour the visitors to win this game - mainly due to motivation.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Atalanta 0-1 Genoa
