Italian Serie A
2009-05-09 - Sampdoria vs Reggina
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: Italy, Serie A
Saturday, 9th May 2009 - Kickoff 17:00
Sampdoria (13th - Home Rec : 7-7-3 26:19)
Sampdoria had to endure at tough afternoon last weekend, losing 1-3 away to fierce city rivals Genoa, and for the first time in 44 years have lost both derby games.
So we should see some sort of reaction this weekend, and it appears that the bookmakers think that it will be a bad one as Sampdoria are rated outsiders despite hosting bottom place Reggina.
That's logic that does not sit too well with me, as Sampdoria have a good home record, and are still scoring plenty of goals at home.
It's true that Sampdoria's league season is effectively and Samp might be thinking about the Coppa Italia Final - but I'm not sure how losing games that should be won EVER helps a build-up.
Reggina (20th - Away Rec : 3-4-10 7:29)
Reggina looked dead and buried three weeks ago, as they'd gone 18 games without a win, but a pair of away wins and a 2-2 home draw with Juventus have thrown the Amaranto a last chance.
It's very tight at the bottom of Serie A with just three points seperating the bottom four sides, and so a positive result here could lift Reggina to 17th place.
Head to Head
Tradionally, this is a game that Sampdoria can expect to win, with four victories and a draw in the last five seasons.
Additionally, Sampdoria do pretty well when facing Reggina in the reverse fixture too. Sampdoria thave three wins and a draw for the last six road games, including a 2-0 success in December.
Probable Teams
Castellazzi;
Stankevicius, Lucchini, Accardi;
Raggi, Sammarco, Palombo, Franceschini, Pieri;
Pazzini, Cassano
Reggina :
Puggioni;
Lanzaro, Valdez, Santos;
Costa, Barreto, Carmona, Hallfredsson, Barilla;
Brienza, Corradi
The Betting Verdict
Sometimes I feel that the desperation angle is played too hard, and while I understand that Reggina have achieved some good recent results they are still last placed in Serie A and lose three times as many away games as they win.
Sampdoria are a better side, are playing at home, and can play without too much pressure which can be a positive thing as well.
The price swing is way overdone in my opinion, and even in current circumstances I'd expect Sampdoria to win this fixture every second time - and so I'l ltake the home side
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Sampdoria 2-1 Reggina
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'm on SAMPDORIA to win. It's not a banker bet - but that price is very good for a team hosting the bottom placed side.
