Italian Serie A
2009-04-11 - Lazio vs AS Roma
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: Italy, Serie A
Saturday, 11th April 2009 - Kickoff 14:00
It's derby time in the Eternal City with the Stadio Olimpico taking centre stage on Saturday afternoon in Italy.
Lazio (9th - Form : 12-5-13 39:43)
Lazio's form heading into this game is awful - three losses on the trot without scoring and the President has ordered the players to a match retreat to prepare for the game while the coach apologised "to everybody" but still said that he was not going to resign.
However, Lazio are a very inconsistant team this season often stringing together sequences of extended wins and losses, so you are never quite sure what is gonig to happen with the Biancocelesti.
Lazio Team News :
Lazio will be missing Simone Inzaghi and Cristian Brocchi but should have all the rest of their squad available.
Mauro Zarate (10 goals) and Tommaso Rocchi (8 goals) are expected to start up front but Rossi could surprise everybody by selecting Goran Pandev (8 goals).
AS Roma (6th - Form : 14-7-9 46-42)
Roma's season has gone better, but elimination from Europe at the hands of Arsenal seemed to hit the Giallorossi hard as they went four games without a win until edging past Bologna 2-1 last weekend.
Francesco Totti scored both goals against Bologna and now has 8 goals in this injury hit season, and once again he will be the talisman up front for Roma.
Roma Team News :
Roma’s injury list is much longer with Alberto Aquilani, Marco Cassetti, Rodrigo Taddei, Mirko Vucinic, Juan and Cicinho all likely to miss the game.
Probable Line-ups
Muslera;
Lichtsteiner, Siviglia, Cribari, Kolarov;
Foggia, Ledesma, Matuzalem;
Pandev, Rocchi, Zarate
AS Roma :
Doni;
Motta, Mexes, Panucci, Riise;
De Rossi, Pizarro, Brighi;
Perrotta;
Baptista, Totti
The Betting Verdict
With the shared venue for this game home and away form matters for little - and so the calculations boil down to a simple question - are AS Roma better than Lazio?
Roma have a slight edge in the last dozen derby games with 4 Roma wins compared to 3 for Lazio, and five games being drawn.
Roma won the first derby of the season 1-0 earlier in the year, but Lazio won this specific fixture 3-2 last season when they were the official "home" side.
Roma certainly have a better overall record this season, and do seem to be in better form over the last three weeks, but Roma also have a longer injury list.
Overall I have it as an advantage for AS Roma, and I'll give them the nod in this derby, with the availability of Totti being the deciding factor.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Lazio 0-1 AS Roma
