Italian Serie A
2009-04-11 - Fiorentina vs Cagliari
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: Italy, Serie A
Saturday, 11th April 2009 - Kickoff 14:00
Fiorentina (5th - Home Form : 10-2-2 21:10)
Fiorentina must keep winning if they are to book a place in the Champions League this season and that's something that's appearing to become harder and harder for the Viola now that injuries bite.
Fiorentina's home record is very good, but both of those two home losses have occured in the last six matches, and they were against sides lower in the table than Cagliari - losing 0-2 to Palermo (8th) and 1-2 to Lecce (19th)
Importantly, Fiorentina be without inspirational striker Adrian Mutu, who has undergone knee surgery. Mutu had socred 13 of Fiorentina's 41 league goals, and his absence will put a lot of focus on strike partner Alberto Gilardino.
Fiorentina Team News :
Fiorentina have serious injury problems as Mario Santana, Adrian Mutu, Per Kroldrup, Martin Jorgensen, Massimo Gobbi and Felipe Melo are all injured.
Cagliari (7th - Away Form : 4-3-7 17:20)
Cagliari's season records may not look stunning, but recent form under a guidance of manager Mihajlovic is good with a 7-2-3 record in the last dozen Serie A game.
Cagliari are in contention for a UEFA Cup place and have only been beaten once in their last six road games, form that's almost unheard of in Italy's Serie A for a small provincial club where home advantage is usually so important.
Look at the recent away results for Cagliari - drawing at Inter Milan, winning 4-1 at Lazio, winning 3-2 at Juventus and only losing 0-1 at AC Milan. Those are top flight performances no matter which club you follow.
After last weekend’s 1-0 win over Catania, Cagliari should travel with some confidence, with good results and an unchanged squad that has no injury problems.
Probable Line-ups
Frey;
Zauri, Dainelli, Gamberini, Pasqual;
Kuzmanovic, Donadel, Montolivo, Semioli;
Gilardino, Jovetic
Cagliari :
Marchetti;
Matheu, Lopez, Canini, Agostini;
Fini, Conti, Biondini;
Cossu, Acquafresca, Jeda
The Betting Verdict
As you can see from the estimates below - I still have the home win as the slightly favoured result - but given the odds on offer there is no way that this is a good betting option.
With all the injuries, and the exceptionally good form of Cagliari, I have the DRAW as almost the same likelihood, and the 3.50+ price appears far more.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Fiorentina 1-1 Caglari
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take the DRAW as the value play in this match.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I definately favour CAGLIARI at a price of even money (2.02+) to get a result with a +0.75 goal start.
