NFL Football
2009-02-01 - Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers
A Sports Betting Pick by Bodog
Super Bowl XLIII at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa
Sunday, 1st February 2009 - Kickoff 6:28pm ET
Sunday, Feb. 1 is the singular red-letter day on the betting calendar, the mother of all US sporting events: Super Bowl XLIII at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
The matchup between the Arizona Cardinals (12-7 SU and ATS) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS) is being treated as a watershed moment for the sports gambling industry.
The Super Bowl is by far the busiest event of the year, with estimates of $8 billion in cold, hard cash exchanging hands worldwide.
A lot of this money will be wagered by people who are betting for the first and only time in 2009. They don’t necessarily know what they’re doing, but they’re having fun.
Betting Lines
The Steelers opening as 6½ / 7-point favorites (-105) and they have not changed much in the pre-game fortnight as the Cardinals attracted enough public money to keep the lines pretty steady early on.
The betting public generally prefers to bet on the favorite, and the Steelers are one of the most publicly adored teams in the NFL. Most money tends to come in closer to game time, especially after the Friday workday is done.
SO if you want the Steelers at -6.5 then it might be in your best interests to move soon before the line moves back to -7.
The total is 46½ / 47, and according to market reports, roughly 70 percent of bettors at press time were taking the over total at +100. (evens)
SuperBowl Trends
The most solid Super Bowl betting trend is the point spread, where the under TOTAL is 12-6 during the past 18 years, including the last four Suerstraight. Sometimes defense is fashionable in a macho kind of way, like the original Steel Curtain, but it’s all about getting into the end zone for most people.
Here’s a good trend too : The AFC is 8-4 SU and 6-4-2 ATS in the past 12 years. We like to think that the rise to prominence of the AFC since the end of the Niners-Cowboys cabal is common knowledge, but squares probably couldn’t even tell you for certain which conference the Steelers represent.
Head to head
These two teams have only faced one another twice during the regular season over the past decade.
The Cardinals (+5.5) beat Pittsburgh 21-14 at home last year; Warner and Matt Leinart split the QB duties in that game, and both Boldin and Ward were out of commission, but the two rosters are otherwise much the same for the Super Bowl.
The Steelers (-7) beat visiting Arizona 28-15 way back in 2003 when the starting quarterbacks were Tommy Maddox and Jeff Blake.
Computer Projections
Every year, computer projections get a little bit better at telling us the likely outcome of a sporting event. This year’s AccuScore forecast has the Steelers winning by an average of 27.1-20.6, which is uncannily close to both the pointspread and the total for this year’s game.
Don’t take these projections as gospel, but use them as a general guideline to help tailor your expectations for Super Bowl Sunday.
The Game
We will get to see a quality matchup in this game the pitting of the explosive passing game of the Arizona Cardinals, featuring those gravity-defying catches by Larry Fitzgerald, against the Pittsburgh Steelers' pass defense which ranks No. 1 in the NFL.
Fitzgerald has been immense this season, leading the NFC with 96 receptions for 1,431 yards and 12 touchdown catches during the regular season, then he piled up 23 more grabs for 419 yards (a playoff record) and five touchdowns in three postseason games.
He seemingly became impossible to cover in victories over Atlanta, Carolina, and especially Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game.
But it's not all about Fitzgerald, as with Steve Breston and Anquan Boldin boh going past 1,000 yard the Arizona Cardinals became just the 5th team in NFL history to have THREE 1,000 yard receivers in the same season.
In order to disrupt this potent offense the Pittsburgh Steelers will need their pass rush to be playing at the dominant level it has for most of the season.
Pittsburgh's two outside linebackers, James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley, must consistently get in Warner's face and bring him down, as they have so many other quarterbacks to date.
Can the Steelers do it? Well, here is a stat that says they can.
Pittsburgh are the ninth team since 1970 to finish first in total defense and reach the Super Bowl. Of the previous eight "best defense" teams - SEVEN have gone on to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The Betting Verdict
We have the Pittsburgh Steelers as 70% likely to come out on top and be holding the Vince Lombardi trophy at the end of the game due to the quality of the defence.
That means that we do favour Pittsburgh to get a hold of Kurt Warner, and force him out of the pocket, and create turnovers.
The Pick :
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 - 14 Arizona
BEST BETTING TIP :
So take PITTSBURGH on the ML
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
On the spread we'd probably take ARIZONA +7 to keep it close, because that also gives you winning action if the Warner/Fitzgerald show keeps it going.
