NFL Football
2009-01-18 - Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
A Sports Betting Pick by Bodog
NFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
Sunday, January 18th 2009 - Kickoff 3:00 p.m. ET
Philadelphia (11-6-1 SU, 12-6 ATS, Under 7-10-1)
The Eagles fly into the NFC title game as one of the hottest teams in the league at 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven, all coming after QB Donovan McNabb was benched in Week 12 at Baltimore.
This is roughly the same path the New York Giants took to Super Bowl XLII; last week, the Eagles (+4) turfed the defending champions 23-11 at Giants Stadium.
Philadelphia ousted the Giants last week despite a pedestrian effort on offense. The New York defense has certainly outperformed Arizona’s over the course of the season; this was the No. 9-ranked unit in terms of efficiency against both the run and the pass.
It’s reasonable to expect Arizona to have more trouble than the Giants did containing McNabb now that he has the benefit of playing indoors, sheltered from the swirling winds and freezing cold of New Jersey.
Arizona (11-7 SU, 11-7 ATS, Over 12-6)
Arizona is also on a roll at 3-0 SU and ATS, starting with Week 17’s victory over the Seattle Seahawks and continuing with playoff wins over Atlanta and Carolina.
Those three games included heavy doses of running, as Edgerrin James saw significant action for the first time since he was benched in Week 9.
This was in many ways a return to form for the Cardinals; they ran the ball heavily in the first two weeks of the season, when they started off 2-0 SU and ATS before getting a little pass-happy with Kurt Warner (96.9 QB rating) at the controls.
Last week’s 33-13 dismantling of the Panthers (-10) also included something we’re not used to seeing from the Cards this year: strong defense.
Arizona forced QB Jake Delhomme into five interceptions and one lost fumble, a definite improvement for a Cardinals team ranked No. 23 in the league against the pass during the regular season.
However, it should be noted that the Panthers offensive line was worn down and vulnerable after a long season, leaving Delhomme exposed in the worst game of his NFL career.
Betting Lines
Okay how many of you actually had the Arizona Cardinals and the Philadelphia Eagles making the NFC title game? Oddsmakers didn't, and now because of the incredible success of road teams so far in the playoffs they are taking notice.
The Eagles are 4-point favorites (-115) on Sunday with a total of 47.
Once the shock of Arizona's upset win over Carolina settles in through the week, the line could move and show the Cards a little more respect.
Philadelphia is also 2-1 to win the Super Bowl, while Arizona has the longest odds of the remaining foursome at 5-1.
Head to Head (since 2001)
Nov 27, 2008 @PHI PHI 48, ARI 20
Dec 24, 2005 @ARI ARI 27, PHI 21
Nov 17, 2002 @PHI PHI 38, ARI 14
Nov 04, 2001 @ARI PHI 21, @ARI 7
Oct 07, 2001 @PHI ARI 21, @PHI 20
Philadelphia leads 3-2, home team leads 3-2 (last 3 in a row)
Week 13, 2008: Eagles 48, Cardinals 20
Eagles RB Brian Westbrook recorded 130 total yards and a career-high four touchdowns (two rushing, two receiving) to lead the host Eagles over the Cardinals on Thanksgiving. Cardinals QB Kurt Warner threw as many interceptions (three) as he did touchdowns in the loss.
The Verdict
Philadelphia look the more balanced side on offence, and have the better defence, and so it's no surprise to see the Eagles installed as favourites in a year when Road teams have ignored the "home team advantage.
But the fact that both of these sides are here in the Championship game at all underlines the obvious fact that the playoff system is prone to upsets.
We don't see this game being a blowout, there will probably be just one score the difference, and turnovers will be the key.
As such (and despite our predicted score) that moneyline price on a Cardinals side that has rediscovered the run has to be worth a shot.
The Pick :
Philadelphia 23-20 Arizona
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take the ARIZONA CARDINALS on the ML of +175 and watch for another crazy game.You can almost treble your money on a game that is pretty close to a coin flip. THAT is good betting value.
