NFL Football
2009-01-04 - Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
A Sports Betting Pick by Bodog
Dolphin Stadium, Miami
Sunday, January 4th 2009 - Kickoff 1:00 p.m.
Weather Forecast : 20% chance of rain, 75 degrees
This is why the NFL has a Wild-Card Round. All four of the visiting teams in this weekend’s opening round of the playoffs are favored against their four division-winning opponents.
Will a Wild Card take the Super Bowl for the third time in four years? Our preview of this weekend’s action suggests they’ll get off to a good start.
Baltimore Ravens (11-5 SU, 12-4 ATS, Over 9-6-1)
Points per game: 21.1 (No. 11)
Points allowed: 15.2 (No. 3)
Passing yards: 175.4 (No. 28)
Rushing yards: 148.9 (No. 4)
Passing yards allowed: 179.8 (No. 2)
Rushing yards allowed: 81.2 (No. 3)
Super Bowl odds: 14-1
Miami Dolphins (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS, Under 10-6)
Points per game: 21.6 (No. 21)
Points allowed: 19.8 (No. 9)
Passing yards: 226.6 (No. 10)
Rushing yards: 118.3 (No. 11)
Passing yards allowed: 226.9 (No. 25)
Rushing yards allowed: 101.4 (No. 16)
Super Bowl odds: 25-1
Head-to-Head
The Ravens bowled over the Dolphins 27-13 in Week 7 as 3-point road dogs.
Miami is still 7-3 SU and ATS in its last 10 meetings with Baltimore dating back to 1992.
Analysis
Baltimore and Miami are both hot at the right time, but the Ravens have been consistently grabbing the cash all year; their win over the Dolphins was the start of a 9-2 SU and ATS romp to the Wild Card.
Miami has won five in a row and covered three of its last four.
Both teams are healthy, as well. The Ravens rushing offense is at full capacity with Willis McGahee (105 yards on 19 carries in Week 7) back and contributing alongside power runner Le’Ron McClain (3.9 yards per carry this year, 10 TDs).
The Dolphins’ run defense is vulnerable in this matchup. Miami is ranked No. 24 in the league stopping opponents in short-yardage situations (third- or fourth-down, two yards or less).
Dolphins supporters hope first-year coach Tony Sparano’s vaunted Wildcat schemes can throw a wrench into Baltimore’s defense. However, the Wildcat was only used five times during their regular-season matchup, gaining just four yards under heavy blitzing from the Ravens.
Handicappers engaged in live betting need to watch out for more advanced trickery from the Fish this time around, as they used the Wildcat in new and different ways to beat the Jets in Week 17.
On the other side of the ball, Baltimore has the information advantage that comes with having Cam Cameron (Miami’s head coach in 2007) in the fold as offensive co-ordinator.
THE VERDICT
The Dolphins are probably ecstatic just to be in the playoffs after last seasons 1-15 record - and it's hard to see the Fish moving the ball much against this tough Baltimore defence.
The Ravens won by 14 points here in October as a 3 point road dog, this time they're giving 3 points, but we think the Ravens will cover that.
The Pick :
Baltimore 24-13 Miami
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the BALTIMORE RAVENS to win and cover.
