NFL Football
2009-01-03 - Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
A Sports Betting Pick by Bodog
University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
Saturday, January 3rd 2009 - Kickoff 4:30 p.m
This is why the NFL has a Wild-Card Round. All four of the visiting teams in this weekend’s opening round of the playoffs are favored against their four division-winning opponents.
Will a Wild Card take the Super Bowl for the third time in four years? Our preview of this weekend’s action suggests they’ll get off to a good start.
Atlanta Falcons (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, Under 9-7)
Points per game: 24.4 (No. 10 in NFL)
Points allowed: 20.3 (No. 11)
Passing yards: 208.5 (No. 6)
Rushing yards: 152.4 (No. 2)
Passing yards allowed: 220.4 (No. 21)
Rushing yards allowed: 126.6 (No. 25)
Super Bowl odds: 20-1
Arizona Cardinals (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, Over 11-5)
Points: 26.7 (No. 3)
Points allowed: 26.6 (No. 28)
Passing yards: 291.9 (No. 2)
Rushing yards: 73.7 (No. 32)
Passing yards allowed: 221.2 (No. 22)
Rushing yards allowed: 110.2 (No. 16)
Super Bowl odds: 40-1
Head-to-Head
Arizona won last year’s Week 16 matchup 30-27 at home in overtime as an 11 point favourite.
Atlanta is 6-4 SU and 5-5 ATS in their last 10 meetings dating back to 1994. The over is 7-3, including last year’s contest.
Analysis
The Falcons come into the playoffs as the much hotter team, going 5-1 SU (3-3 ATS) in their last six, while Arizona stumbled to the finish line at 2-4 SU and ATS.
The Cards may have taken their foot off the gas a little early after sewing up the shockingly poor NFC West; the two victories they did manage were at home against St. Louis (+14) and Seattle (+7).
Arizona is 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS this season against teams from other divisions. Atlanta is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS outside of an NFC South that had no losing teams this year.
Both teams are relatively healthy going into the Wild-Card Round. And both teams played their starters heavily last week – Atlanta to secure the No. 5 seed, and Arizona simply to hit the postseason on a winning note.
Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin (shoulder) looked good in Tuesday’s practice (according to the Arizona Republic) after sitting out the last two weeks.
The Cards have become an abnormally pass-heavy team as the season has progressed, but they managed to unleash Edgerrin James for 100 yards on just 14 carries in last week’s win over the Seahawks.
Atlanta’s rush defense is worse than Seattle’s, and James should be fresh after originally losing his job to Tim Hightower in Week 9. Coach Ken Whisenhunt refused to tell reporters on Monday who his starting RB would be on Saturday.
The Verdict
The overwhelming stat for us is that Arizona was 6-0 inside their weak division, but 3-7 outside it.
It's been 61 years since the Cardinal franchise had a home playoff game (way back in 1947), and home advantage is not going to be enough.
The Pick :
Atlanta 34-24 Arizona
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take ATLANTA FALCONS to win and cover.
