NCAA Football
2008-12-20 - Fresno State Bulldog at Colorado State Rams
A Sports Betting Pick by Luccin
New Mexico Bowl
Albuquerque, New Mexico
December 20th 2:30pm (ET), 7:30pm (GMT)
Hardly the most inspiring of bowl matchups sees the team I rank 52nd overall play the 70th best side. Both teams had different expectations coming into the season and it will be interesting to see how they match up.
Colorado State
Most pundits picked the Rams to finish dead last in a very tough Mountain West conference but a 4-4 conference record sees them finish mid pack and off to a bowl for the first time on 4 years.
It took two wins in the final two games of the season to see them become bowl eligible and it could be argued that there is not one single impressive victory on their schedule.
On the other hand the two defeats against BYU and TCU by a total of 9 points were possibly the best two performances of the year and show that they could compete with the best in the conference.
Don't look for a lot of defence as they are giving up over 400 yards per game, instead the focus will be on QB Billy Farris playing in his last game, his impressive passing stats have allowed a solid running game to develop and the offense looks extremely balanced.
Fresno State
Pre-season expectations had many people picking Freesno to push Boise State all the way in the WAC but in the end the Bulldogs had to settle for 5th place and a final day blowout defeat against Boise.
The season started well enough with a win over Rutgers and ,a small loss to Wisconsin but then the season became very erratic, the low point being a loss to unfancied Louisiana Tech.
A 4-4 conference record saw them beat the bottom four and lose to the top 4.
Again defence has been a problem with almost 400 ypg conceded, the threat comes from a very balanced attack, the QB Brandstater is solid and the running game has 3 solid options Harding, Miller and Matthews who all average over 5 yards a run and can punch the ball in easily.
The Verdict
On paper these are two evenly matched teams but if Fresno can get the running game going then this should see them with too much of the ball and Colorado State will struggle to make an impact.
The key will be attitude and it is important that both teams treat the game with respect, 4 wins in their last 5 bowl games show that Fresno have the mentality to push this one over the top.
Just a note, I am playing these bowl games for half of my usual stake as they are a little more unpredictable
The Pick :
Fresno State 35-28 Colorado State
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I would recommend a pick of Fresno State (-3)
