NFL Football
2008-12-11 - New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
A Sports Betting Pick by Bodog
Soldier Field, Chicago
Thursday, 11th December 2008 - Kikcoff 8:15 p.m. ET
15% chance of rain/snow, 30 degrees, 15 mph winds
New Orleans: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS, Over 8-4-1
The three Saints in question are RB Deuce McAllister, DE Charles Grant (on injured reserve) and DE Will Smith.
McAllister was a non-factor in last week’s 24-21 win over Atlanta (+3); Smith was involved in six tackles as the Saints held Atlanta to 99 yards rushing.
But Smith’s presence wasn’t enough to keep Matt Ryan from passing for 315 yards. The Saints are No. 25 in the league with 20 TD throws and 3,006 passing yards allowed on the season.
Chicago: 7-6 SU, 6-6-1 ATS, Under 8-5
Fortunately for the Saints, Chicago’s offense isn’t tailored to take advantage.
The Bears are No. 23 in the league with 5.7 yards per pass attempt; their offensive forte is Matt Forte, the rookie RB with 4.0 yards per carry and 10 of Chicago’s 34 TDs on the season.
Devin Hester has yet to reach the end zone this year and has been taken off kick-return duty in favor of Danieal Manning.
A Hester punt return TD was key to last year’s 33-25 win by the Bears (+1).
The Verdict
This game is like oil and water.
The Saints lead the league in offense at 6.3 yards per play and 7.8 yards per passing attempt, but their defense is below average. The Bears lead the league in turnovers created at 27, but their offense is below average.
It figures to be a close contest.
The Bears, however, are 3-point favorites for Thursday (even money). Chicago gets the chalk because of Soldier Field; temperatures for this primetime affair are expected to dip below 30 degrees, which should be enough of a challenge for the dome-based Saints even under mostly clear skies.
The Saints are 1-5 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road this season, and we think that the Chicago Bears will grind out a winning cover.
The Pick :
New Orleans 17 - 24 Chicago
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the CHICAGO BEARS to win in the freezing weather.
