NCAA Football
2008-11-01 - Air Force Falcons at Army Black Knights
A Sports Betting Pick by Luccin
Venue: West Point, New York
Saturday, 1st November 2008 - Kickoff 12:00 PM ET
This fixture has been played virtually every year for the last 40 years, in recent years it has been dominated by the Air Force who have a 17-3 record over the last 20 games.
This game sees two teams who play the option attack, expect to see the ball stay on the ground for the most part.
Recent Matchups
2007 Air Force 30-10 Army
2006 Army 7-43 Air Force
2005 Air Force 24-27 Army
2004 Army 22-31 Air Force
2003 Air Force 31-3 Army
All time Air Force lead 28-13-1
Air Force Falcons
The Falcons are now in their second season under coach Troy Calhoun after 23 years under previous head coach Fisher DeBerry. The team have settled immediately and are currently 15-6 under the new boss.
This season has been solid, the loss to Utah was expected but a defeat at Navy was dissapointing although Navy have been much tougher than expected.
Balanced play has been the key, they have outscored opponents by 10 points a game and are up by nearly 70 yards a game. There are no real stars on the AF offence, they rarely pass the ball and option attack means that 7 different players regularly carry the ball.
On the defensive side they have been solid, allowing only 304.5 yards a game, 29th in the NCAA, expect the defence to come up big again this weekend.
Army Black Knights
Army play a similar game to their opponents,they have only passed for 360 yards in total this season, the ball stays on the ground for virtually every play, significantly though the running game is concentrated on two players, QB Chip Bowden and RB Colin Mooney, these two account for two thirds of all running yards.
Unfortunately for the Black Knights the offence is not getting the job done, averaging only 292 yards and a miserable 17 points a game. Like their opponents defence has been solid, giving up only 24 yards per game.
Army have had a fairly easy schedule, they have 3 wins but none of these were against a quality opponent, they did lose to FCS team New Hampshire,, they bounced back nicely from this setback and have gone 3-1 in their last four games including narrow victories over Eastern Michigan and Louisiana Tech.
If the Army are to win this game they must get improved performance from their running game.
THe Verdict
Air Force will have too much strength in this low scoring game, expect them to pound away on the ground and take a solid victory in alow scoring affair.
The Pick :
Air Force 27-10 Army
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Air Force -8.5 (1.952 Pinnacle)
