NCAA Football
2008-09-27 - Fresno St Bulldogs at UCLA Bruins
A Sports Betting Pick by Luccin
Venue : Pasadena, California
Saturday 27th September 2008 - KO 3:30PM ET
Two teams with varying fortunes come into this game, for UCLA it is critical for them to win for Fresno a win would push them solidly into thee top 25.
UCLA Bruins
The Bruins have had a strange start to the season, week 1 saw a great victory over Tennessee, the following two weeks saw two poor results though. However, the two opponents BYU and Arizona are very good teams and not too much should be read into the defeats.
The big problem for UCLA is the defence, they are giving up a huge amount of points and yardage, but there are giving the ball to the opposition too much. Look for an improved performance this week as they face the weakest offence so far.
QB Kevin Craft is passing reasonably well EXCEPT for 5 interceptions, this is killing the UCLA offensive play, the junior must improve this week or he will find himself on the sideline. The running game has been non existent but it has been up against two excellent and one very good defence. This week should see them open up a bit.
Fresno State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs started the season with what appeared to be a good win over Rutgers on the back of a +5 turnover rate, although this has been reduced by the subsequent performance of Rutgers. A narrow defeat at home to a decent looking Wisconsin outfit would have been dissapointing, this was followed by a very poor performance in an OT win over Toledo.
The defence has fairly mediocre so far giving up a lot of yardage and has struggled to shut down any of the three teams they have faced so far. Last weeks performance against Toledo will have been very concerning with 54 points giving up.
On the other side of the ball the offence totally relies on the passing game, Brandstater the QB has looked solid although his stats are padded by 4 touchdowns against Toledo, he only managed 1 TD in the first two weeks. Also RB Ryan Matthews has more than half his yards in the first game against Rutgers and has not scored since.
Previous matchups:
2003 Fresno v UCLA (N) 17-9
2000 Fresno @ UCLA 21-24
1999 Fresno @ UCLA 21-35
1995 Fresno @ UCLA 21-45
1989 Fresno @ UCLA 0-17
UCLA lead series 4-1
The Verdict
A battle between two teams with weak defnece, it should be a high scoring game. I do not believe the we have seen enough from Fresno for them to be worthy of their 7.5 point handicap.
BEST BETTING TIP :
also consider OVER 46.5 TOTAL POINTS @ 1.893
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take UCLA +7.5 @ 1.893 (PinnacleSports)
