Tennis
2008-06-27 - Wimbledon- Day 5 vs
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
It looks like we might be getting our first 'rain stopped play' of the tournament so far this year as heavy showers are due to hit the Wimbledon area at around 1pm. However, any such delay should not be for too long and the skys are supposed to clear up by 3pm.The courts have been playing quite slowly so far this week, as remarked by Marat Safin, but they usually quicken up as we get to the business end of the fortnight.
Roger Federer v Marc Gicquel
Federer will be glad he negotiated his tough 2nd round match in straight sets, especially after seeing 2 of his title contenders, Andy Roddick and Novak Djokovic, both fall at this hurdle and seeing Rafael Nadal dropping a set before coming through. Federer has extended his winning record on grass to 62 matches and will be a clear favourite coming into this match.
Gicquel is a very good 'club' player, only turning professional at the age of 24 and sits outside the top 50 in the World. He is now 31, but only made his debut at Wimbledon last season when he was knocked out in the 1st round in 4 sets to Jan Hernych.
Gicquel has taken a shine to grass last week in Holland when he reached a semi final on the surface but he was comfortably beaten by David Ferrer. He has not had a great season overall this year and I just dont see him posing too many problems to Federer.
These 2 players have met once before, Federer winning in straight sets at the US Open 6-3, 7-6, 6-3 in 2006.
I cant see this match following anything but a similar pattern to the match between the 2 at the US Open. Gicquel has got older and his movement is not quite at the same level as it used to be and so I will take Federer against the handicap here.
Lleyton Hewitt v Simone Bolelli
Hewitt is really suffering from a hip injury during this tournament but his desire to win can never be questioned. After fighting through a 1st round where he defeated Robin Haase in 5 sets, he came through relatively easily in the last round against Albert Montanes.
Hewitt has a great record at Wimbledon where he has reached the 4th round on each of his last 4 appearances. Last year he was defeated in 4 tight sets by Novak Djokovic, and previous to that he had reached 2 QFs and 1 SF, losing 2 times to Roger Federer and 1 time to Marcos Baghdatis, all very strong grass court players.
Bolelli has reached a career best of a 3rd round appearance here at Wimbledon after beating Alex Bogdanovic and Fernando Gonzalez in the previous rounds. However this is only his 2nd appearance in the main draw at Wimbledon and last year he was knocked out in the 2nd round by a certain Lleyton Hewitt.
Bolelli has played in 2 grass court tournaments in the lead up to this event but had struggled with a 1-2 record. The fact his only win came through a player retirement shows his problems and he was comfortably beaten by Richard Gasquet and Julien Benneteau.
The players have only met 1 time in the meeting mentioned earlier at Wimbledon. On that occasion Hewitt won 6-2, 6-2, 6-1.
I hestitate to tip Hewitt to win in straight sets due to the injury worry and the potential for a set to go to a tie break, but I will recommend him to win on the handicap, although it must be checked how low the bookies keep it.
Tomas Berdych v Fernando Verdasco
Berdych has plenty of pedigree on grass, but has really struggled in his first 2 rounds and makes me wonder why he is the favourite here. He was as close to going out in the 1st round as anybody as he trailed Evgeny Korolev 3-5 in the final set before winning 4 games in a row to clinch the match. Berdych was then involved with splitting the first 2 sets in tie breakers against Victor Hanescu in the 2nd round before he turned on the style and won through in 4 sets.
Berdych attempted to retain his title won on the grass courts in Halle in preparation for this tournament but was comfortably beaten in the 2nd round by Robin Soderling.
He has progressed in his achievements at Wimbledon during the last 3 seasons. Berdych was a 3rd round loser in 2005, 4th round loser in 2006 and a Quarter Finalist in 2007. Last year he finished with a 9-1 record on the grass.
Verdasco has taken his preparation for Wimbledon even more seriously than usual this year as his undertook 2 tournaments instead of 1. He lost in the 2nd round at the Artois Championships but did manage to reach the final at Nottingham last week.
Verdasco came through impressively in straight sets in the 1st round over Philip Kohlschreiber, a runner up at Halle this season. In the 2nd round, similarly to Berdych, he split the opening 2 sets in tie breakers against Olivier Rochus before winning the last 2 sets for the loss of 2 games.
Verdasco reached the 3rd round here last season before falling to Andy Roddick but his best performance came the year before when he achieved a place in the 4th round before losing to Radek Stepanek.
The 2 players have met 4 times previously. Berdych has a 3-1 record, winning all 3 meetings between the players last season. Berdych has won 7 of the last 8 sets played by the pair, but 4 of those were tie break wins which suggests there are only a few points separating the 2 players.
I feel this match is very close to call so I will once again side with Verdasco as an underdog as I believe he has played the better tennis of the 2 this week. However, Verdasco can have mental issues during matches so I would advise to keep stakes reasonable as Berdych definitely holds the pyschological edge at this point. If Verdasco can manage to win a tie break, he should garner the belief to win this match.
Marat Safin v Andreas Seppi
Safin shocked the tennis world with an easy win over the World Number 3 Novak Djokovic in the last round following an easy win over Fabio Fognini in round 1. His win over Djokovic has many people tipping Safin as a dark horse, but I dont fall into that category (I love Safin's game so if proven wrong I would still smile). Safin's win over Djokovic was as much down to his own good play as it was Djokovic's terrible performance. Safin is yet to drop a set in this Championship so it will be interesting to see his reaction to his new found love of the surface in that scenario.
Preparation for Safin coming into Wimbledon was cut short at the Artois Championship with a 2nd round defeat to Fernando Gonzalez.
Safin has failed to progress beyond this stage at Wimbledon in his last 5 appearances here. Last year he also reached this stage without dropping a set before being unceremoniously knocked out... to Roger Federer mind.
Andreas Seppi has had a much harder fight to this stage of the tournament, including a 5 set win over Florent Serra in the last round. He has already shown this year that his game can translate onto grass with a 2nd round appearance at the Artois Championships followed up with a QF spot at Nottingham. He even managed to take a set off the big serving Ivo Karlovic at Nottingham before falling to defeat.
This is a brand new experience for Seppi as he had failed to make it beyond the 2nd round in his 3 previous appearances here. They are due to play on Centre Court tomorrow, but Seppi has had previous experience of that when he lost to Andre Agassi in straight sets in 2006.
The 2 players have never met before in competition.
The only reason I am picking against Safin here is because I think Seppi represents some value. Safin is a very skinny price for a player who has lost more matches than he has won on the main tour this year, and who previously has not hidden his dislike for the surface.
Seppi can serve well and when he gets hot he can hit through a player and I can definitely see him posing more problems than his odds indicate.
Mario Ancic v David Ferrer
A really good match rounds of the day tomorrow between 2 well matched players.
Ancic comes into the tournament with the 'last man to beat Roger Federer on a grass court' splashed all over his CV. He had a 2 set lead over Michael Llodra in round 1 before Llodra was forced to retire with shoulder troubles, and then came through a fierce fightback from Philipp Petzschner in round 2. On that occasion, Ancic had a 2 set lead disappear before winning the match in the 5th set.
Ancic has made the 3rd round of a grass tournament in London and the QF of a grass tournament in Holland in preparation for this tournament. On both occasions, he was prevented from winning by players currently in the top 10 of the World, Richard Gasquet and David Ferrer.
This year is the first time in 2 years that Ancic has taken part in the tournament through injury and illness. His last 3 appearances have seen him reach the QF, 4th round and the SF.
Ferrer was also aided with a retirement in the 1st round as he held a 2 set lead but his 2nd round match posed more problems. Igor Andreev had a strong head to head record over Ferrer and took the 1st set before Ferrer fought back to win fairly easily in 4 sets.
After taking a short break after the French Open, Ferrer played his only grass court tournament in preparation for Wimbledon in Holland. Surprisingly, Ferrer actually went on to win the tournament, beating todays opponent along the way, and it was his first grass court title.
This is the first year in a while that Ferrer has actually played a tournament on grass before Wimbledon, perhaps inspired by Rafael Nadal's transition from clay to grass. His previous best result at Wimbledon was the 4th round in 2006 and last year he was a 2nd round loser to Paul Henri-Mathieu.
I feel that David Ferrer has every opportunity to win this match tomorrow, and he has shown he can beat Ancic on a grass court in the last couple of weeks. Ancic has the game that is well suited to playing on this surface, but I feel he is still gaining his best tennis after his injury and illness from last year and that Ferrer will come through in 4 tough sets. However be quick if you want the prices, as Ferrer is coming down and the value will soon shift to Ancic.
Remember to check the forum for updated picks during the day
BEST BETTING TIP :
Federer - 8.5 gamesHewitt - 3.5 games
Verdasco win @ 2.1 (Pinnacle)
Seppi win @ 3.26 (Pinnacle)
Ferrer win @ 1.87 (Globet)
