Euro 2008
2008-06-22 - Spain vs Italy
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Spain
Spain are hoping the last 3 Quarter Final results are not an indication of what to expect tonight after all 3 group winners were knocked out. Spain won Group D with 3 wins from their 3 games, but it took late goals in their matches with Sweden and Greece that allowed them to do so. Spain will be hoping their 4-1 win over Russia on matchday 1 will give them a pyschological advanatage over their potential semi final opponents.
Spain looked good in beating Russia 4-1, but I put a lot of that down to the inexperience of the Russian side which has grown a lot in their last 4 games. They then looked like they had run out of ideas against the Swedish wall in game 2 before David Villa latched on to a long ball with seconds to play. Spain rested a lot of their regular first XI against Greece in the final game but showed their heart to fight back from a goal down to win the game.
Luis Aragones is confidant his squad can remove their 'under achiever' tag in this tournament and will likely be the favourites to win the tournament if they come through this match. Spain are also showing a lot of respect towards the Italians and are fully focused on this match.
Aragones is likely to resort back to his original first XI for this game.
Italy
Italy have rode their luck a little bit to get to this stage of the competition and were a penalty kick away from being out after their second game with Romania. Holland thumped the Italians in the opening game 3-0, but that scoreline did not reflect the match as a whole. After drawing with Romania 1-1, Italy did not have their fate in their own hands but knew a win over France would only be good enough to qualify if Romania failed to beat Holland. Holland won, and Italy' 2-0 win over France set up this mouth watering game with Spain.
The Italians have played well in all 3 games but seem a little light up front with Luca Toni not firing as of yet. They have had chances to win their games and might be considered a little fortunate that Buffon saved Adrian Mutu's penalty in game 2 which would have knocked the Italians out of the competition. I think they will need to improve their strike rate in front of goal if they wish to beat the Spanish tonight.
Italy have put a seed in Spanish minds after mentioning the fact it has been such a long time since the Spanish beat the Italians in a competitive match. However manager Roberto Donadoni has insisted the Italians dominance over Spain in international competition is irrelevant and that his side is prepared for penalties if need be.
Gennaro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo will both be missing through suspension and so Alberto Aquilani and Massimo Abrosini will likely deputise. It is expected that Pannuci and Chiellini will partner each other at centre back.
Head to Head
Spain and Italy have only played in 3 friendly matches in the last 8 years. Spain won 2 of those at home, while the only game played in Italy was a 1-1 draw.
The last meeting took place earlier this year in Spain, and it was the Spanish who nicked the win 1-0.
The 2 nations have met 9 times in competitive matches, and the Italians have 5 wins while the Spanish only have 1.
They have met twice previously at the European Championships, Italy winning 1 and the other being a draw.
Prediction
I have a feeling the Spanish are building momentum into this tournament and could finally end their international voodoo and leave England as the last 'big' European nation to win an international tournament- that distinction is held by Spain courtesy of last winning a tournament in 1964.
At full strength I would have favoured the Italians, but I think the loss of Pirlo in midfield will remove some of their creative ability and missing Gattuso may allow the Spanish midfield a fraction more time on the ball.
I also favour the Spanish strike duo over the Italians Luca Toni and feel if this is a game of few chances, as I imagine it will be, then I think either Villa or Torres are more likely to take their chance to get through.
I hate going against the Italians at this stage of a major competition, and Spain are renowned for losing it at the back end of tournaments, but I can't ignore the team news and I think Spain nick it with a single goal.
The Pick :
Spain 1-0 Italy
