Euro 2008
2008-06-18 - Russia vs Sweden
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
UEFA Euro 2008 - Group D
Stadion Tivoli Neu, Innsbruck
Wednesday 18th June 2008 - KO 19:45
Russia need to beat Sweden to advance to the quarter-finals. Sweden will qualify with a draw
RUSSIA
Russia's 1-0 win over Greece was enough to give them a shot at heading into the quarter-finals but they will have to be far more accurate in font of goal if they are to dfeat the combative Swede's in the final game.
Russia possibly have the edge on the tactical bench with Guus Hiddink recognised as one of the most experienced coaches at this tournament. This is Hiddink's fifth major tournament and he has always successfully managed to progress past the group phase.
SWEDEN
Sweden have played well so far in the tournament, and although they were disappointed not have earned a draw against Spain, it would not have made much difference to the standings as they would still have required a draw here to progress.
The Swedish squad is the oldest at Euro 2008 at an average age of 29 years and 85 days and perhaps that started to show against Spain in the final minutes as the Swedes started tire badly.
Swedish coach Lars Lagerback is also at his fifth major tournament and under his guidance Sweden have only failed to move past the group phase once at a major tournament (Euro 2000).
HEAD TO HEAD
These teams have met 23 times before with Russia holding a slight 8-8-7 edge.
Sweden have won two of the four competitive encounters, Russia one. Their last competitive meeting dates back 14 years to the 1994 World Cup. Sweden beat Russia 3-1 in the group stage.
Their most recent clash was a friendly in 2002 that ended 1-1.
TEAM NEWS
Andrei Arshavin returns from a two match suspension after being sent off in Russia's final qualification match. Arshavin was the only Russian player to play in all twelve of his country's qualification matches. He scored three goals.
Russia captain Sergei Semak, defender Yuri Zhirkov and midfielder Diniyar Bilyaletdinov should be OK after taking part in light training on Monday.
Sweden is without Christian Wilhelmsson due to a hamstring problem while Niclas Alexandersson is struggling with a calf strain.
Zlatan Ibrahimovic is on an individual training program and will be a game time decision.
THE VERDICT
Although Russia can play a high paced game, they seem reluctant to go forward freely and play with freedom.
To me that plays into the hands of the more experienced Swedish side who seem to know how to control the ball better - and yet still have the lethal Larsson / Ibrahimovic combination.
Sweden can play conservatively and hit the Russian's on the break if the game opens up when Russia start to chase the win.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I favour SWEDEN but with a draw being enough for the Swedes I'll take the AH+0 option - which returns stakes in the event of a draw.
