EURO 2008 BETTING PICK - NETHERLANDS V ROMANIA

Euro 2008

2008-06-17 - Netherlands vs Romania

A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner

Netherlands vs Romania
UEFA Euro 2008 - Group C
Stade de Suisse Wankdorf, Berne
Tuesday 17th June 2008 - KO 19:45

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Romania go into this fixture with a good chance to follow their opponents into the quarter-finals of UEFA EURO 2008.

Following draws against France and Italy, Romania can secure second place with victory against a Dutch side already guaranteed top spot after taking the maximum six points from their two fixtures to date.

Netherlands

With the Netherlands through as section winners, Marco van Basten has admitted he is considering resting players for this game against Romania.

Van Basten may make wholesale changes. When asked that at a press conference he replied "That could be a possibility. Someone might be tired or have a problem regarding yellow cards," (Andre Ooijer and midfielder Nigel de Jong would be suspended for the quarter-finals if booked again.)

Van Basten added "It could also be that we feel someone else is doing so well he deserves a chance. But for me every match is important."

Romania

Romania were very defensive in their opening game agasint France, but showed more attacking ambition against Italy, but it was still basically a defend and counter-attack plan.

Now they go into a must win situation (OK a draw MIGHT be enough) and it will be intersting to see whether Romania has a gameplan that involves actually getting on top and dominating the game.

Head to Head

The most significant results are probably the two qualification games for Euro 2008 (as these two sides were in the same group) where Romania had the upper edge - drawing 0-0 in Holland and then winning the return match 1-0 in Romania.

Prior to that the Netherlands had won all thre competitive games against Romania.

Team News

The Netherlands will probably make several changes Andre Ooijer and Nigel de Jong unlikely to play. Van Basten will also probably use more of his squad to explore options.

John Heitinga and Demy de Zeeuw are likely to deputise, while Arjen Robben is expected to start his first match after two substitute appearances.

Ajax striker Klaas-Jan Huntelaar is set to replace Ruud van Nistelrooy up front, while Robin van Persie and Ibrahim Afellay could replace midfielders Real Madrid's Wesley Sneijder and Hamburg's Rafael Van der Vaart.

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Romania are keeping their team selection plans to themselves right now.

However Romania will be without centre-back Dorin Goian who is suspended while holding midfielder Mirel Radoi has been ruled out of the tournament after breaking his nose and cheekbone in last Friday's 1-1 draw with Italy.

The Verdict

It's another game where the best team has already qualified, and the underdogs become favourites based on motivation and likely team selection.

In this case we don't have to worry about the other game, if Romania win here then they are through, so that makes things clearer.

Romania are not a bad side, and they did finish ahead of the Netherlands in the qualification group, and are currently ranked 12th in the world by FIFA.

But, based on tournament form so far, I have to think that the Netherlands should at least be a match in this game, and I think that the bookmaker odds have swung too far.