Euro 2008
2008-06-16 - Poland vs Croatia
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
UEFA Euro 2008 - Group B
Worthersee Stadion, Klagenfurt
Monday 16th June 2008 - KO 19:45
Although Croatia have qualified as group winners, and Poland are bottom this game is not quite dead as technically the Poles could qualify with a big win here IF Austria also beat Germany, but by fewer goals.
POLAND
So it's a big task for Poland but coach Leo Beenhakker probably hit on the only plan that might work when he said "Maybe I can call my old friend Slaven Bilic and ask him to play his mother-in-law as a striker against Poland. But, apart from that, I can't do much more." at a recent press conference. :-)
Coach Leo Beenhakker is still waiting for his first victory as an international head coach in nine matches at major championships. Four matches with Holland (1990 Fifa World Cup), three with Trinidad and Tobago (2006 Fifa World Cup) and the two group phase matches with Poland at Euro 2008 have not produced a victory.
Circumstances mean that this could be his best chance ...
CROATIA
Having already confirmed their spot as group winners it is feasible that Croatia will not use any key players that have already picked up a booking here - to make sure that they are available for the quarter-final.
Based on what we've seen Croatia have the better first choice players, but a country of just 4.5m people does not have a lot of depth and without Modric and Srna this will be a weaker line-up.
(if that happens - see below)
HEAD TO HEAD
These nations have met each other in four friendly matches. Croatia won their first two games (home friendlies), which were followed by a draw and a Poland victory.
Their last match was a warm-up friendly for the 2006 Fifa World Cup on 3 June 2006, when Poland won 1-0 in Wolfsburg, with a goal from Ebi Smolarek.
TEAM NEWS
Poland coach Leo Beenhakker, the Poland coach, says the need to win may force him to juggle his starting line-up. Beenhakker is without the injured Jakub Blaszczykowski and Maciej Zurawski, while Ebi Smolarek may be dropped.
Smolarek, who led Poland's attack with nine goals in qualifying and came into the tournament with huge expectations, but has so far disappointed at the finals.
Croatia have five players with one booking, so Robert Kovac, Josip Simunic, Luka Modric, Darijo Srna and Jerko Leko will be suspended for Croatia's quarter-final should they receive another.
Will they be "rested"?
Coach Slaven Bilic has said "It would be madness to field first-choice players who are on one yellow card and we also have a few with minor knocks and bruises who need a break."
THE VERDICT
So Croatia don't really care "too much" about this game and will probably give their full squad a run while Poland are highly motivated to get at least a 2-goal victory ... and then hope.
Of course the betting public and the bookmakers know this - and have priced accordingly - and betting on this motivational aspect can fall apart if news comes through that Germany have taken the lead in their game.
Reading this game and all the permutations is tricker than a poker game when your opponent is all-in ... and each punter will have to make up their own mind on what THEIR crystal ball says.
The Pick :
It depends ... on a lot of things ...
BEST BETTING TIP :
You can get prices of 5.00 for POLAND -1 (at Bet365 and Paddy Power) which means that Poland have to achieve their aim to win by 2 goals or more.Or a price of 3.20 (at Bet365) for POLAND TO LEAD AT HT if you think that they'll give it a good shot.
Or if you think that this game will simply fade out because Germany will win their game then a price of 3.60 on the DRAW is the best priced result option.
