AFL Aussie Rules
2008-06-01 - Sydney Swans vs Richmond Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by Gratis
SCG, Sydney Sunday 1st June. 1.10pm
Sydney goes into this match with two straight wins while Richmond won last week against Essendon.
Sydney are fifth on the table with five wins, three losses and one draw, Richmond is eleventh with three wins, five losses and one draw also.
Sydney
As this is a Sunday game, the squads haven’t been finalised yet, but Brennan, Kennelly and Smith have all been put on notice as possible starters.
Power full forward Barry Hall is still unavailable due to his seven game suspension.
Last weekend Sydney had an impressive win in Adelaide against last seasons grand finalists Port Adelaide. Sydney led for most of the night but showed good character to hold their nerve as they were headed late in the game, only to fight back and win by two goals.
Dual Brownlow medallist Adam Goodes returned to form, having 22 disposals and seven clearances last week.
Richmond
Richmond has recalled Polak, Morton and Tivendale but no one has been omitted yet. The Tigers finally got the win they deserved last week after some good efforts against St. Kilda and Geelong went unrewarded with two narrow losses.
The Tigers are currently six points outside of the top eight (play off places) and are some chance to play finals this year, but need to turn these winnable games into something tangible.
Head-to-Head
Sydney absolutely belted Richmond at the SCG last season, but it must be said that Richmond finished on the bottom in 2007 and are greatly improved this year.
2007: Sydney 138 def Richmond 72
2007: Richmond 72 lost to Sydney 88
Verdict
I give Richmond some chance of winning this and they are available at the juicy odds of 5.25 to win by Under 39.5 points.
But the safest way to go in my opinion is to take the 1.90 line bet, with Richmond getting a 27.5 head start with most bookies.
I expect Sydney to win by about 18 points.
The Pick :
Sydney to win by 18 points
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Richmond +27.5 points
