AFL Aussie Rules
2008-05-30 - Adelaide vs Essendon
A Sports Betting Pick by Gratis
AAMI Stadium, Adelaide 30th of May 2008 - 8.30pm
Both sides are coming off losses in round nine, with Adelaide being stunned in Perth by lowly West Coast Eagles while Essendon were jumped early by Richmond and never got back into the match.
Adelaide are fourth on the table with six wins and three losses, Essendon is fourteenth with only two wins, which both came in the opening three rounds of the season.
Adelaide Crows
Adelaide has an unchanged line up from last week, but will be wary of the effect recalled Essendon player Scott Lucas can have on tonight’s round 10 opener.
This means that Essendon now have two (Lucas and Matthew Lloyd) genuine gun forwards in the line up, and Crows full back Ben Rutten will likely get the job on Lloyd while Nathan Bock is tipped to get Lucas.
Essendon
Essendon welcome back power forward Scott Lucas for the first time since round 1 and Bachar Houli is also back from injury. Making way for these two is Daniher and Watson, both out with niggling injuries.
Head-to-Head
Essendon have surprisingly won the last two head to head against the Crows.
In round one last year they upset the Crows by 31 points in Adelaide with Scott Lucas kicking seven goals, and late in the year Matthew Lloyd kicked five in another upset with the Bombers winning by twelve points at the Telstra Dome in Melbourne.
2007: Essendon 117 def Adelaide 105
The Verdict
After Adelaide’s big loss last week and two defeats to the Bombers last season, there won’t be any complacency. They will be quick to shut the game down and play it on their terms which is to strangle the opposition and stifle their run.
Essendon have started poorly in their last two outings, but should improve here with their two big name forwards back in the side so I think that Adelaide will win by 30 points.
I suggest taking Essendon at the 1.90 line, which is available at about plus 41 or 42 points.
The Pick :
Adelaide to win by 30 points.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Essendon +41 points.
