Eng. Championship
2008-05-10 - Crystal Palace vs Bristol City
A Sports Betting Pick by Footie Addict
English Championship Semi-final Playoff (Leg 1)
Saturday 10th May - KO 12:15
The English Championship commence their playoffs this weekend, with the tables showing us 4 apparently even teams vying for the last of the promotion places on offer. However, some of these teams have demonstrated very different form in recent times, with some playoff hopefuls here due to good performances pre-Christmas, while others are here because they are playing well at the present.
This is exemplified by this fixture, where in-form Crystal Palace takes on out of sorts Bristol City. Bristol City were consistently in 1st/2nd positions in the league until the last 3 months, which saw their form plummet and their points advantage over the chasing pack disappear. Crystal Palace were lower mid table for the first few months of the season, but a very strong finish to the season saw them soar up the table and into 5th position in the league.
Crystal Palace had an average home record of 9-5-5, but this was severely damaged in the first few months of the season, they have a 4-2-0 record in their last 6 home matches, ending in a 5-0 thumping of Burnley last weekend. Crystal Palace have only lost 1 league game in their last 12, (narrow loss away to Hull, 1-2). They have also managed to beat fellow promotion hopefuls Watford (Away) Stoke (Away).
Bristol City have also managed to lose 5 of their last 8, with wins coming vs two lower midtable sides with nothing much to play for late in the season (Preston & Norwich. Both of these games were also at home where they have the majority of their league wins. Bristol City have now lost 4 away games in a row.
Current Form (most recent games first);
Crystal Palace
W 5-0 vs Burnley (H)
L 1-2 vs Hull City (A)
W 1-0 vs Watford (A)
W 2-0 vs Scunthorpe (H)
W 2-1 vs Stoke City (A)
D 0-0 vs Blackpool (H)
D 0-0 vs Sheffield Wednesday (A)
W 2-0 vs Barnsley (H)
D 1-1 vs West Brom (A)
W 2-1 vs Colchester (H)
Bristol City
W 3-0 vs Preston (H)
L 1-2 vs Sheffield Utd (A)
D 0-0 vs Wolves (H)
L 0-2 vs Southampton (A)
W 2-1 vs Norwich City (H)
L 1-2 vs Cardiff City (A)
L 1-2 vs Plymouth (H)
Bristol’s form in recent weeks is way below par for a playoff hopeful – but really it could be worse. Preston had absolutely nothing to play for on the last day, while Bristol could have been dumped out of the playoffs altogether. Bristol City have quite a small squad and it has been showing in the last couple of months, they look a tired outfit and I have successfully opposed them on several occasions.
HEAD TO HEAD
The head-to-head record during the season is also in Crystal Palace’s favour, they won 2-0 at home to Bristol City, and drew 1-1 away, with Bristol City saving themselves with a 90th minute equaliser in that game.
Crystal Palace will be determined to get a win at home with a trickier trip to Ashton Gate for the 2nd leg to follow. Bristol City will likely sit back and play for a draw, and maybe play on the counter attack.
The Verdict
I really do think Crystal Palace hold all the cards in relation to winning this leg in 90 minutes, greater motivation (home support & tougher away leg to follow), home advantage, better current form and a good head-to-head record vs Bristol City so far this season.
Bristol City seem to be in decline, but will fight hard to get something to bring home for leg 2. However, teams in good form are more often likely to deliver in the playoffs, and I’m sure Neil Warnock will have his team fired up here.
One last thing to consider on this match - Crystal Palace have a GD of +16, where Bristol City have a GD of +1 (it was -2 before the last day). This indicates to me an element of good fortune to Bristol City's position in the league - which has been becoming unstuck in recent months. It is very rare a side get can that many points from such a poor goal difference.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Confidence;7.5/10 (Crystal Palace Home Win)
6.5/10 (Crystal Palace to Qualify for Playoff Final)
