English Premier
2008-05-11 - Portsmouth vs Fulham
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
England, Premier League
Sunday 11th May 2008 - KO 15:00
Here's another game where the bookmakers and public believe that special circumstances overrule a seasons worth of evidence garnered with our own eyes.
PORTSMOUTH
The feeling is that we can't really expect Portsmouth to offer much serious opposition in this match as next weekend's FA Cup final gets all the Pompey players focus and interest, and the last thing anyone wants is an injury.
Manager Harry Redknapp has previously said that now all he cares about is the Cup final and his team have certainly backed that up with three defeats in a row and only one goal in the last four.
So a lot of this is true - but I'd also be thinking at any fringe players at Portmouth might also be grabbing this last chance to impress, and try to squeeze their way into the cup final squad.
All I'm saying is that Portsmouth are 8th in the league, and have only lost 3 times at home all season, drawing here with ALL of the big four clubs.
So will it really be so easy for Fulham to turn them over?
FULHAM
Fulham were quoted at 1/100 for the drop at Betfair during in-play betting a couple of weeks back and now amazingly they have Premier League survival in their own hands.
In true Hollywood style, Fulham produced a stunning comeback against Manchester City two weeks ago where they came back from two down to win 3-2 with all their goals coming in the last 20 minutes.
That means that Fulham have won their last two away games, but prior to that they failed to win any of 33 Premier League road games, a run stretching back to September 2006 !
So has anything really changed for Fulham? No.
Wins at Reading and Manchester City are one thing - but Portsmouth are a better side than both of those clubs - and so I do not think that an away win is a foregone conclusion.
HEAD TO HEAD
Portsmouth have a good record against Fulham, going 2-2-0 at Fratton Park in recent years, and they're also 2-1-0 in their last three trips to Craven Cottage too.
THE VERDICT
I don't believe that Portmouth are trying to 'throw games' and I don't really see what benefit it gives Pompey's players and fans to see their club slide to a defeat against a weaker side.
A win would set up Pompey nicely for the final - and a draw would be OK too - so I'm going to take the home side with a handicap start to throw a spanner in the works here.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Portsmouth 2-1 Fulham (or 1-1 draw)
BEST BETTING TIP :
That top price of 3.60 on Portsmouth at Interwetten is tempting ...
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
But I'll put my money on PORTSMOUTH +0.5 GOALS in the asian handicap style.
