AFL Aussie Rules
2008-04-26 - Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows
A Sports Betting Pick by Gratis
MCG, Melbourne
Saturday 26th of April. 2.10pm
Carlton come into this crucial home game on the back of a two-game winning streak and a win here could put them into the top eight. Adelaide recorded a solid win at home last weekend defeating Fremantle by seventeen points.
The match will be played at the MCG, and some rain has been forecast. Any adverse weather will likely be an advantage to Adelaide.
Carlton is eleventh on the table with two wins and three losses. Adelaide has won three of their first five and are fifth on the table.
Carlton (2-3) 11th
Carlton has made three changes to their starting line-up, with Bannister out due to a hamstring injury while Bentick and O’hailpin have been dropped. Replacing them are Browne, Gibbs and Hartlett.
Brendon Fevola will again play at full-forward after another bag of goals last weekend against the woeful Demons has took his tally to 22 goals in the last three games. His opponent will be gun fullback Ben Rutten and this duel could well decide the outcome of the match.
Adelaide (3-2) 5th
There is only one change for the Crows, with last week’s debutant Jacky making way for Knights.
Adelaide will look to the ‘birdman’ Brett Burton to spark the forward line, hoping for a repeat of last weekend when he took a game-high 10 marks.
Simon Goodwin and Scott Thompson have also been in sparkling form this year and their tussles with Chris Judd and Nick Stevens in the middle will also have a big impact on this match.
Head-to-Head
Adelaide won the last time these two met.
2007: Carlton 86 lost to Adelaide 105 (Telstra Dome)
The Verdict
Carlton is in the up and should be respected for this clash but I think that Adelaide will be too sharp for them and get up in a tight one.
The odds for an outright Adelaide win are not that great, so I will be taking Adelaide to win by under 39.5 points (avail @ 2.20).
The Pick :
Adelaide to win by 15 points.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
