AFL Aussie Rules
2008-04-20 - Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues
A Sports Betting Pick by Gratis
MCG, Melbourne
Sunday, 20th April 2008 - KO 1.10pm (local time)
Bottom side Melbourne host Carlton on Sunday at the home of AFL football. Melbourne hasn’t been close to winning a game all season, while Carlton had their first win last weekend.
Melbourne are sixteenth (last) on the table while Carlton are twelfth.
Melbourne (0-4)
After pushing last seasons premiers close in Round 3 (they lost by 30 points), the optimists predicted a winning chance last week for Melbourne but they were blown away early by the Kangaroos and went on to lose by 42 points.
As this is a Sunday game, the sides have not been confirmed but Frawley, Garland, Moloney and Warnock have been recalled with only Miller being dropped so far.
Carlton (1-3)
Carlton upset Collingwood last week in a surprise win, which avoided them attaining a club record of 15 straight losses.
Full forward Brendon Fevola is in stunning form, kicking 15 goals in the last two weeks. If he fires again it will be another Carlton win.
Head-to-Head
Melbourne actually won both matches last season, while in 2006 Carlton won both encounters.
2007: Melbourne 139 def Carlton 108
2007: Carlton 101 lost Melbourne 124
2006: Carlton 80 def Melbourne 73
2006: Melbourne 72 lost to Carlton 93
2005: Carlton 92 lost to Melbourne 110
The Verdict
Carlton’s odds are ridiculously under value considering last week was their first win in 15 games.
It is hard to build a case for Melbourne who has been very poor this season, but they have a winning chance here and should at least give a good account of themselves.
The Pick :
Carlton to win by 13 points.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Melbourne to win with the line betting giving about a 20.5 point head start.
