NFL Football
2008-01-12 - Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Saturday, January 12, 8:00 p.m. ET
Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, Massachusetts
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
New England have the perfect regular season behind them, but it will all count for nothing without the SuperBowl ring at the end of the season. They were the best team in the AFC from September through to December, but need to prove it all over again.
The Patriots have already beaten playoff teams San Diego, Washington and Pittsburgh at home this season and they did it by winning by at least 21 points in each of those games. Scores have not been as impressive recently as they were at the start of the season but a lot of that can be placed due to the effects of the weather on their passing game, and this has developed a strong running game for the team also.
However, they have only failed to score less than 28 points in 2 matches during the regular season. They have also won their last 3 games in Foxboro by 21, 10 and then 21 points.
New England will have benefited from their week off last week and should have most injuries cleared up.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Jacksonville made this game by beaten the Steelers for a second time in Pittsburgh this season. They ended the season with a 11-5 record, a record that would have won the AFC North and the AFC West and also would have been good enough to win 2 divisions in the NFC. They lost an 18 point lead against the Steelers last week but won with a field goal with 40 seconds left on the clock. The Jaguars were 5-3 on the road in regular season play.
Jacksonville ended the regular season as one of the hottest teams in the NFL with 6 wins from their last 8 games, the last game being played with their second string players at Houston. They had won their previous 2 from 3 on the road. They won at 3 playoff bound teams during the regular season in Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh but were defeated in Indianapolis.
The Jaguars continued their good road play with another win at Heinze Field last week. The team has scored at least 24 points in 11 straight matches now and have scored at least 28 points in 6 of their last 7 games.
Mike Peterson looks likely to miss another game and John Henderson will be a late decision with Grady Jackson likely to fill in.
STATISITCS
New England have beaten the Jaguars in 3 of their last 4 meetings and 2 of the last 3 at Foxboro. They beat the Jaguars by 25 points in the playoffs here 2 years ago.
New England went 5-3 against the spread at home this season and Jacksonville are now 6-3 on the road. The Patriots are 6-4 on turf against the spread whereas the Jaguars are 1-1.
The weather in New England is ironically going against the visiting team as it is not expected to be that windy and very little chance of rain/snow. The Jaguars are more suited to playing football in the cold even though they are based in Florida, and the Patriots play more like a southern team with their passing offense and so prefer these conditions rather than the weather picking up.
PREDICTION :
A lot of experts think this game will be close but I think the Patriots are going to expose the secondary of the Jaguars much like Roethlisberger did in the second half last week.
The weather will allow the passing game to flourish and the Patriots have a clear edge there. Jacksonville may attempt to control the clock with lots of running plays but this does not really work against an offense as good as the Patriots as they dont really need a lot of time to score.
David Gerrard will be key here as he threw 2 interceptions last week after only throwing 3 all season. I think the Patriots will be good enough to cover the spread as the force Jacksonville to throw the ball in playing catch up.
The Pick :
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 24-42 NEW ENGLAND PATRIO
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
NEW ENGLAND -12.5 POINTS
