NFL Football
2007-12-30 - San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown
Sunday, December 30, 1:00 p.m. ET
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns have had an amazing journey this season and their 9-6 record must be one of the most surprising records of the season, even more so after they were blown out at home by Pittsburgh in Week 1. Amazingly enough, the Browns could end up with a 10-6 record and still fail to make the playoffs, a record that would potentially be better than 3 of the teams making the NFC playoffs.
Their fate is in the hands of the Indianapolis Colts who would have to beat Tennessee to ensure Cleveland make the playoffs. Interestingly, Cleveland could lose this match and still make the playoffs as it is only the Tennessee result that will decide the outcome of the number 6 seed in the AFC.
Cleveland are 6-1 at home this season, winning 6 straight since that Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh. Cleveland score plenty of points at home, at least 27 points in 5 of their 6 victories at home. The other victory only yielded 8 points thanks to the elements. The defence has also restricted teams to less than 19 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Last week they were beaten at Cincinnati when Derek Anderson was picked off 4 times.
Joe Jurevicius is likely to be a game time decision tomorrow. Kellen Winslow will be available to play.
San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco have had a disappointing season and a 5-10 record. Many people were expecting them to challenge in the NFC West and thought there was potential there for a playoff spot. They will come across the country with nothing to play for except their pride.
The 49ers are 2-5 on the road this season. Both of their wins on the road came against divisional rivals St Louis and Arizona and have already lost 4 times when having to travel towards the East of the USA. They have won 2 in a row, coming back last week against the Tampa Bay backup players to win 21-19.
The San Fran offense has only put up more than 21 points on 1 occasion this season and have failed to reach double figures in 5 games. The defence has held teams to less than 20 points in the last 2 games, but the previous 3 games had seen teams score 27, 31, and 31 points and Cleveland will expose that.
Shaun Hill misses this game again so Chris Weinke will be the 4th starter at QB for the 49ers this season.
Statisticsa
Cleveland have gone 11-4 against the spread this season while the 49ers are 5-10. The Browns are an excellent 6-1 against the spread at home and the 49ers have struggled on the road at 2-5.
The Browns have won 2 of their last 3 against the spread and the 49ers have won their last 2.
It will be cold in Cleveland and there is a chance of seeing some snow/rain during the game. The wind is not expected to be a major factor in disrupting the passing game which bodes well for Cleveland.
PREDICTION
Cleveland cannot do anything but wait to see what Tennessee does in Indianapolis before their fate in the playoffs is decided. They have had an excellent season and one that was not expected but a playoff spot is something they really wish to achieve.
They will want to show their talents one last time to the fans at home in hope of showing some more on the road during the playoffs.
The 49ers are coming across the country, which is difficult at any time, but with little motivation and looking ahead to time off means I will favour the Browns to cover.
The Pick :
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 17-31 CLEVELAND BROWNS
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take the CLEVELAND BROWNS -12 POINTS to cover (just)
