NFL FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

NFL Football

2007-12-23 - Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Sunday, December 23, 1:00 p.m. ET
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio

CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati are one of the disappointments of the season and have really failed to deliver on much promise. They come in to this big divisional match with a 5-9 record which is good enough for 3rd spot in the AFC North. With nothing much to play for except pride, but with a number of changes likely to be made in the off season, the players will be playing for their futures at the franchise.

Cincinnati have a 4-3 record at home this season and are always tough to beat here. They have shown a lot of inconsistancy during their last 6 matches, winning 1 and then losing 1. The Bengals have won 2 straight at home.

After scoring 35 points at home against Tennessee 3 weeks ago, the offense has once again taken a step back and have failed to score more than 19 points in the next 3 matches. The defence has shown some signs of stiffening as only 1 team has scored more than 20 points in the last 4 weeks.

Rudi Johnson misses out in this game and will be replaced by Kenny Watson.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

While Cincinnati have been a disappointment, Cleveland have to be one of the surprise teams of the season, if not THE surprise team of the season at 9-5. They are currently 0.5 games behind Pittsburgh in the race for the AFC North title, but the tie break procedures mean a loss here will prevent the Browns winning the division. Cleveland are also 1 game ahead of Tennessee in the race for the last wild card spot in the AFC and so they cannot afford to lose.

The Browns are 3-4 on the road this season. They have won 2 of their last 3 matches on the road and have won 4 of their last 5 matches overall. Last week the Browns managed to beat Buffalo 8-0 in the snow, and thats their lowest points total since Week 1 and the guidance of Charlie Frye.

They had scored at least 21 points in their previous 8 games before that win last week. The shutout last week was the first time they have restricted a team to under 13 points this season, but the defense is giving up an average of 25 points per game and that is 26.5 points on the road.

Cleveland come into the match with a decent bill of health (as decent as it can be coming into Week 16).

HEAD TO HEAD AND STATS

Cleveland won the meeting between the sides earlier this season 51-45 in a real shoot out in Week 2. However, Cincinnati have won 3 straight at home against the Browns.

Cincinnati are 4-9-1 ATS this season but that is 3-4 at home. They have gone 1-3-1 as the underdog. Cleveland are 11-3 ATS this season including 5-2 on the road. They are also a perfect 7-0 as the favourites in matches.

Cincinnati have lost 3 straight ATS while Cleveland have won 8 of their last 9 including 2 straight.

The weather in Cincinnati suggests there is an even chance of rain and it will be cold because of the wind. This will effect the passing game of both teams, and so the game could rest in the hands of Jamal Lewis and Kenny Watson.

PREDICTION

This match looks so obviously favoured for Cleveland, but I won't be picking them to win. Cincinnati will be playing a divisional rival and have a msssive motivation in being able to stall the Browns run to the playoffs.

As other teams have shown recently, Philadelphia at Dallas last week being an example, divisional matches provide enough motivation for a team to play hard and win. The Bengals, including head coach Marvin Lewis, are fighting for their jobs next season and a win here could keep the fans smiling over Christmas.

I have been impressed with the Browns and still think they will make the playoffs, but I also feel this is going to be a tough match for them and a game they could lose.

The Pick :