NFL FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ ST LOUIS RAMS

NFL Football

2007-12-20 - Pittsburgh Steelers at St Louis Rams

A Sports Betting Pick by FirstDown

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St Louis Rams
Thursday, December 20, 8:15 p.m. ET
Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, Missouri

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh bring their 9-5 record into St Louis but their place in the playoffs is far from assured after 2 defeats in a row. They currently lead the AFC North from the Cleveland Browns thanks to their head to head record over their rivals after beating them twice already this season. However, with 2 road games to go, it is arguable that they have the tougher schedule. If the Steelers win the division they are likely to entertain Jacksonville in the first round of the playoffs. A defeat here might mean they are left fighting for the 6th seed in the AFC and ultimately a trip to San Diego in the first round.

The Steelers have not performed well on the road and bring a 2-4 record into the Edwards Jones Dome. They have also lost their last 2 games overall and 3 of their last 5 matches. It does not get any better on the road with 2 straight defeats and 3 defeats from their last 4 games. Pittsburgh's real strength has been their defense this season which on average only gives up about 17 points per game.

However, even that has been taking a beating the last 2 weeks conceding 34 points and then 29 points last week. The Steelers managed their 2 road victories against divisional rivals Cleveland and Cincinnati. I tend to ignore the win against the Browns as they were still playing Charlie Frye at that point and the team is much improved since then. The Steelers have been beaten by 3 teams with losing records on the road- Arizona, Denver and the New York Jets.

Troy Polamalu returned for the Steelers last week and they need him to get rid of any match rustiness as soon as possible. Anthony Smith is likely to be benched in the safety spot and his position is going to be filled by Tyrone Carter. Ike Taylor is suffering with a sore knee and the cornerback may miss this game. His replacement will be Bryan McFadden.

St Louis Rams

St Louis Rams never really recovered from their 0-8 start but they have moved their record to 3-11 recently. Injuries have plagued this team all season and they have already had a number of rotations at the Quarter Back position. It should be clear that the Rams have nothing but pride to play for but this is much more important in the NFL as the salary cap ensures that some of these players will be playing for jobs next season.

The Rams have a horrible 1-6 record at home this season and were beaten heavily by the Green Bay Packers last time out. Home games are not feeling like they should either as disgruntled fans sell their tickets to fans travelling into St Louis. The Packers had as many fans as the Rams last time out and local television are not playing St Louis games at the moment. The Rams have lost 2 straight matches and 2 of their last 3 at home since their bye week.

The Rams are generally keeping their matches at home close with only Carolina (in Week 1 with Jake Delhomme) and Green Bay winning easily here. The other 4 losses have come by a combined 16 points and none of them by more than 7 points. The big problem for St Louis is their 2nd half performances when the team starts breaking down and 10 of their 14 games has seen them fail to score a TD in the 2nd half.

Marc Bulger and Steven Jackson both will be able to start at close to full strength which is a huge bonus for the Rams. Both teams are going to be sore in this match as they come into it off a short week.

HEAD TO HEAD & SPREAD STATS

This is Pittsburgh's first visit to St Louis since 1979 (the Rams had relocated to Los Angeles for some of that time). The teams have only met once since 2001 when the Rams beat Pittsburgh at Heinze Field in 2003.

St Louis are 5-9 against the spread this season and this translates to being 2-5 at home. They are 3-7 against the spread as the underdog in a match up.

The Steelers are 7-7 against the spread but are only 2-4 on the road. They have a 7-5 record when they are considered the favourite.

Pittsburgh have actually lost 5 of their last 6 matches against the spread whereas St Louis have won 4 of their last 6.

PREDICTION

The Steelers should, and probably will, win this game and anything else would be a major surprise to me.

However I don't like giving up more than a TD on the road on a short week, especially not when the Steelers have struggled on the road this season, and the Rams have a habit of keeping games close.

St Louis are keeping games within the amount Vegas believes they will at the moment and they still have an offense that can score points. I expect a close Pittsburgh win but ill bet with St Louis ATS.

The Pick :