AFL Aussie Rules
2007-08-25 - Fremantle vs Melbourne Demons
A Sports Betting Pick by DannyBoy
VENUE & TIME :Subiaco, 4.10pm, Saturday 25 August
HEAD TO HEAD :
Carlton 93 Kangaroos 50 Drawn 0
LAST TIME :
Fremantle 21.11 (137) def Melbourne 13.14 (92),
Round 4, 2007 at the MCG
Team Changes
Dockers :
IN: Headland Dodd
OUT: Carr (adductor) Murphy
Melbourne :
IN: Bruce Ward Miller P Johnson C Johnson Buckley
OUT: McDonald (shoulder) Davey (knee, hamstring) Bell (back) Bate (corked thigh) Holland (shoulder) Wheatley (calf)
Preview
An unexciting clash between two sides with nothing to play for, except a score on the board for two coaching aspirants.
Fremantle are a “mathematical chance” to still make the finals. Not so common are the upsets that are required if this is to happen, including a Freo victory over Port Adelaide in the last round.
An Essendon loss to Richmond and a draw between Brisbane and Adelaide – far-fetched even if the Lions have drawn two matches already in 2007 – are just two outcomes that would be ideal for Fremantle.
However, all these permutations will be meaningless unless Fremantle beats the Demons on Saturday afternoon in Perth.
Mark Harvey, has an easier job as he guides a better-credentialled Docker side through a home-ground encounter. The Dockers, impressive under Harvey for much of his short tenure, went down to St Kilda by an even five goals.
Josh Carr has racked up 65 possessions and kicked six goals in his past three outings.
Former Demon Jeff Farmer (concussion) is expected to play against his old side as he attempts to convince caretaker coach and likely long-term prospect Mark Harvey to keep him around.
Melbourne came within 11 points of celebrating skipper David Neitz's 300th match with a win against Collingwood at the MCG. They have been desperately unlucky this year in terms of injuries to star players and losing close games, but this one looks out of their reach.
Mark Riley believes he has a good chance of securing the Demon job full-time and a win in Perth would certainly help, coming in the middle of the club's coaching selection process.
James McDonald has been one of Melbourne's best in a trying season. He hasn't missed a game and could be on his way to back-to-back best-and-fairest awards.
THe Verdict
Fremantle may also be a little flat after its hopes of September were dashed last round. But Matthew Pavlich in superb form and the likes of Carr, Shaun McManus and the impressive Ryan Crowley expected to dominate the vast expanses of Subiaco.
I think Freo should be giving up around 42-43 points for a 2.00 line, so to take 40+ at the juicy odds of 2.00 is pretty generous.
The Pick :
Dockers by 44 points
BEST BETTING TIP :
Dockers -31.5 @ 1.90Dockers Over 39.5 @ 2.00
Dockers 40-59 @ 4.00
