AFL Aussie Rules
2007-07-27 - Western Bulldogs vs West Coast Eagles
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
We're back with another "spreadsheet pick" for Friday night - although I will warn you that both of Sunday's picks failed when the underdogs failed to stay within 20 points.Western Bulldogs (9-7) v West Coast Eagles (10-6)
Where and when :Telstra Dome, Friday July 27, 7.40pm
Head to head :
Western Bulldogs 12 wins, West Coast 22 wins, one draw
Last time:
West Coast 10.17 (77) d Western Bulldogs 9.8 (62),
Round 6, 2007, at Subiaco
Analysis
The West Coast Eagles performed exactly as expected last week - beating Sydney by 12 points at Subiaco and helping us to some beer money in the process.
Now the punters are back on their side and the Eagles are 20 point favourites to beat the Bulldogs at Docklands on Friday night - but I'm not so sure.
It was a good win - but the Eagles lost two games in a row prior to that including a humiliating 91 point thumping at the hands of Port Adelaide in a 153-62 drubbing.
Throw in the fact that the Eagles are just 4-4 when travelling this season - and also are a dodgy 1-4 in their last five road games - and I'm not so sure where this handicap came from.
Mind you the Bulldogs were steamrolled by Geelong, slumping to a 75-point loss last Friday night - which is not a good sign.
And they also lost two good players in tough midfielder Mitch Hahn who dislocating his shoulder and All-Australian backman Lindsay Gilbee suffered a calf strain.
But the Western Bulldogs are 5-2 as the "home side" this season and also 3-3 when playing other Victorian clubs as the "away side" - (making a 8-5 record when playing instate) so it's fair to say that they're deserving of their current top eight spot.
The Verdict
OK - I'll agree that the West Coast Eagles are the better side - and that last week playing the underdog didn't work with the winners running up big margins.
But I still think that the gap between these two sides is not as big as the public thinks and I will take the Western Bulldogs with a big points start.
The Pick :
West Coast Eagles win by 4 points.
