AFL Aussie Rules
2007-07-15 - Fremantle vs Kangaroos
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Fremantle (6-8) v Kangaroos (9-5)
Where and when:
Subiaco, Sunday, July 15, 2.40pm.
Head to head:
Fremantle four wins, Kangaroos 10 wins
Last time:
Fremantle 13.6 (84) d Kangaroos 6.13 (49),
Round eight, 2006, at Subiaco
ANALYSIS
Fremantle are not going to make the top 8 this season, but in my opinion Freo almost always should be fancied to win when they play an out of state opponent at Subiaco.
Since round 4, Freo have gone 5-5, winning all five home games, and the last four wins here have been by margins of 16, 46, 21 and 77 points.
The Kangaroos have been nothing but impressive in the past two weeks, beating Richmond by 25 and the Bulldogs by 26 points - but games close to home don't paint a full picture.
In out of state games the kangaroos have lost their last 5 games all by big margins, including a 66 point thumping by West Coast on this ground and also that 49-84 loss to Freo listed above.
THE VERDICT
Just based on Freo's home form - and the Roo's poor away record - this margin of 13 to 15 points looks like one that can be beaten.
The Pick :
Fremantle by 28 points.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take FREMANTLE -13.5 PTS to cover that headstart.
