AFL Aussie Rules
2007-07-06 - Essendon vs Geelong
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Essendon (8-5) v Geelong (10-3)
Where and when :
Friday July 6, Telstra Dome, 7.40pm.
Head to head :
Essendon 112 wins, Geelong 86 wins, five drawn.
Last time :
Geelong 20.10 (130) d Essendon 13.10 (88),
Round 11, 2006, at Telstra Dome.
ANALYSIS
Geelong are in red hot form with 8 wins in a row - and the Cats look a very good outfit indeed.
Geelong played well for the first half last week and then slipped into cruise control against Sydney at home. They had a minor scare in the last term when the Swans made a semi-charge, but it was seen off without too many problems.
There are good signs from Skilled Stadium, and the streak winning streak rolls on - so it's hard to go against them here.
Essendon came up with a late, late show themselves to beat Melbouren by a couple of points - so that also shows good spirit - but I don't think that will be enough here.
THE VERDICT
I think that Geelong will win here - but the low pricing doesn't really make it worth playing - unless you're a fan.
The Pick :
Geelong by 22 points
BEST BETTING TIP :
The pricing is just about spot on - and this is one Friday night game that we will have to sit out as there is no betting edge.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
There is no leeway on the handicap as we make Geelong 21-22 point favourites, while the bookmakers and scattered around the same mark - so we have to let this one pass.
