Champions League
2006-03-28 - Arsenal vs Juventus
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Tuesday night for European football, and as Arsenal prepare to leave the grand old Stadium that is Highbury at the end of the season, they're giving it an impressive European send off.ARSENAL (ENG 6th) 15-5-10 48:23
EURO FORM = WWWWWD WD
The Gunners domestic woes have been well documented this season, with a string of away defeats in mid-season as Arsenal ran into an injury crisis in midfield and defence that meant that the kids were in charge.
Fortunately for Arsenal and manager Arsene Wenger, the stricter European refereeing standards around "legal challenges" has meant that the young Arsenal team have had more protection on the Champions League stage and Arsenal have run up an impressive 6-2-0 record so far - conceding just two goals.
Arsenal will still be without Sol Campbell for this game, and Freddie Ljundberg has a calf-muscle injury too but otherwise this is starting to look like a healthy Arsenal squad and Wenger will have a few choices to make.
Tiredness will NOT come into it however, as Arsenal's weekend match against Portsmouth was called off an hour before kickoff - so the players had a physical break and could enjoy the scenic coach ride to and from the South Coast.
JUVENTUS (ITA 1st) 24-6-1 61:20
EURO FORM = WWLWWW LW
For Juventus, this first match will be a question of safety first. They have the skills to match any side but over the last few seasons we have seen an increasingly defensive Juve when playing away from Turin.
A 6-0-2 European record this season shows a lot of strength, but Juve seem to play much better in the Stadio Del Alpi in Turin where they've won all four games - while they've been beaten 1-2 by Bayern Munich and 2-3 by Werder Bremen this season in away games.
The Bianconeri have tasted defeat on their last four trips to England, including a 2-1 loss at Liverpool at the same stage a year ago, and I was surprised to find that Juventus have won just twice in 15 visits to England.
When I throw in the fact that Juventus will be missing both Alessandro Del Piero and Pavel Nedved, and the fact the Juve had to play much of last weekend's match with 10-men against AS Roma then it really does look like a tricky fixture for the Italians.
Of course Juventus have David Trezeguet up front who is a lethal finisher, and ex-Gooner Patrick Vieira will be returning to Highbury for the first time and is sure to put in a huge effort - so they will be a tremendous side ...
... but those few elements have conspired to undermine Juve in my eyes here and make the Italian side vulnerable.
HEAD TO HEAD
It was 4 seasons ago - but Arsenal and Juventus did face each other in group the group stages of the competition.
Arsenal won the first match 3-1, while Juventus won the return leg 1-0 and although Arsenal had the better head-to-head record, Juve had the last laugh by qualifying for the knockout stages with that win.
20.03.2002 Juventus v Arsenal 1:0
04.12.2001 Arsenal v Juventus 3:1
These two sides have also met once earlier, way back in 1980 in the now defunct European Cup winners Cup with Arsenal scoring a late winner in Turin to snatch the match 1-0 and win the tie on a 2-1 aggregate.
THE VERDICT
This should be a fascinating match - it could be a great one - but I suspect that like most games that are highly anticipated it will NOT be - as Juventus and Arsenal will both play fairly carefully early on.
Arsenal should create most of the chances, but Trezeguet is dangerous and he'll be looking for a vital away goal against the youthful Arsenal defence.
Given Juve's woeful record in England, and the absence of two quality players, then I do give Arsenal the advantage in this first leg which they'll need to take in order to travel to Turin with a chance.
The Pick :
Arsenal 2-1 Juventus (risk of 1-1 draw)
BEST BETTING TIP :
Given my rankings I have to say that the prices on 2.50+ for the home win on ARSENAL are way over-priced. I'm on that.However, I'm also going to take a bit of insurance in taking TREZEGUET TO SCORE ANYTIME as he's the real danger man in this first leg. (Best price is 2.75 @ Ladbrokes)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
A "level ball" handicap surprises me - as it gives complete insurance in the event of a draw. As such I'll take ARSENAL +0 AH.
