Champions League
2013-03-05 - Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Europe : Champions League
Tuesday 5th March - Kickoff 7:45pm
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund beat Hannover (3-1) comfortably at the weekend to keep them in second place in the Bundersliga. There was no casualties from the game and they look confident to finish off their tie on Tuesday against Shakhtar Donetsk.
Klopp's side haven't lost in 7 Champions League games this season. The Germans came out of a tough group including Manchester City, Ajax and Real Madrid as group winners and that's a statement. Having scored 2 in Donetsk in the first leg they need a win or a 0-0/1-1 draw to progress.
At home in the Champions League, Dortmund won all 3 group games this season. Ajax (1-0), Real (2-1) and Manchester City (1-0) were dismissed with minimum fuss and in last year's campaign they lost once in their group games. In 5 of the last 6 Dortmund European home games the result has been good enough to see them go through to the last 8 if they reoccur on Tuesday.
3 of the last 4 home wins in Europe have been to nil with giants Real Madrid the only scorers. However, in 4 of the last 6 they haven't netted more than 1 goal. If the visitors score early then this could really open up the tie.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk won 4-1 domestically on Friday night and they face a much bigger task on Tuesday night. The visitors go in level at 2-2 but realistically need to win if they are to progress although 2-2 takes them to extra time.
Lucescu's side haven't won in 2 Champions League games and it's 1 win in 4 which isn't inspiring. The sale of Willian is massive and given they need goals isn't ideal as this Dortmund is devastating on the break.
Away from home in Europe Shakhtar have won once in 3 and 2 in the last 7. This team did draw at Juventus (1-1) and lost to a last minute goal at Chelsea (3-2) but in both they had large spells of domination. It's crucial that they score first in this and cast a few doubts in the home side's heads.
The Ukrainain's have scored in 4 straight away games and 10 of the last 11 so there is hope. In the 4 games they have netted 10 goals, granted 5 were at Nordsjaelland but 3 goals at Juve and Chelsea is very good. Unfortunately, no clean sheets in 3 is a problem and even the lowly Danish side netted 2 against them and this could ultimately cost them the tie.
Betting Verdict
Borussia Dortmund are cira 1.60 to win this game and I expect them to finish the job on Tuesday. The price isn't for me though given they don't "need" to win and that puts me off backing them.
I like overs here as I see at least 1 visitors goal and this game could get stretched very quickly. Shakhtar have scored in 3 straight away and 10 of the last 11. Yes, the hosts have shut sides out in recent wins but none will arrive knowing they need to score from the first minute.
Dortmund will score against this defence as well given their attacking talent and the visitors inability to keep away clean sheets. As the game gets open I see a counter goal from Dortmund which may ultimately win them the game and send the visitors out.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Over 2.75 Goals at 1.81 at PinnacleSports
