Champions League
2013-03-05 - Manchester United vs Real Madrid
A Sports Betting Pick by Lamps
Football : Europe : Champions League
Tuesday 5th March - Kickoff 7:45pm
Manchester United
Manchester United saw off Norwich City (4-0) with ease at the weekend ahead of this huge second leg against Real Madrid for a place in the last 8 of the Champions League.
Ferguson's side drew 1-1 in Spain in the first leg and their away goal could be huge. It means that if United win or draw 0-0 then they go through, 1-1 means extra time and any other score draw or a Real win and they go out.
At home in the Champions League United were 13 games unbeaten going back to 2009 before Cluj (0-1) won here in the final group game. United didn't need to win the game but still it was a shock to see them lose at home.
The blank is their first in 10 having scored 2 or more in 7 of the 8 previous Champions League home games. At the back no clean sheets in 2 here isn't ideal with Madrid the visitors on Tuesday. Going further back 2 clean sheets in 10 is poor and 2 Real goals could send this side out.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid rotated their squad and still beat Barcelona on Saturday ahead of this game. That's 2 wins in 4 days against their arch rivals and Real enter Old Trafford very high on confidence.
Mourinho's side have only won 1 of their last 4 Champions League games. 3 were draws (all score draws) and a score draw of 2-2 or more sees them go through on Tuesday.
Away from home in the Champions League Real has lost 2 of their last 4.Both losses came in Germany at Bayern and Dortmund and they haven't lost on the road in 11 away games before hand.
15 away games in a row is the current Real Madrid scoring run and they must fancy at least 1 at Old Trafford. Interestingly, they have scored 2 or more in just 1 of the last 4 and if they don't score they are out. No away clean sheets in 4 is also a problem suggesting another 1-1 could be on the cards in this one.
Betting Verdict
Real Madrid are odds against favourites to win this game cira 2.30 which just looks wrong to me. United have lost once in the last 14 games at home in this competition and the visitors need a high score draw to go through so I don't like an away win.
Real Madrid have won once in the last 4 away Champions Leagues games and I'm happy to take United to avoid defeat in this game on the asian line.
Despite beating Barcelona twice in 4 days I feel that can't help them physically ahead of this huge game. Real rotated the side but a lot of players featured in both and whilst United were coasting v Norwich. Real were matching Barca's hard pressing game and that could have a negative affect on Tuesday.
The odds just look plain wrong to me and I'm happy to back the hosts to avoid defeat. The fear is that the score is 2-2 and United need a goal and conceded on the counter. However, for the odds on offer it's worth the risk.
Good Luck
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Manchester United 1-1 Real Madrid
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Manchester United +0.5 AH at 1.75 at PinnacleSports
