Champions League
2013-03-05 - Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : UEFA Champions League: Round of 16
Venue: "BVB Stadion", Dortmund
Tuesday 5th March – Kickoff time: 20:45 GMT+1
Borussia Dortmund
After being ousted by Bayern Munchen from the German Cup and building up a huge deficit in the Bundesliga, the UCL remains the only competition that German champions Borussia Dortmund can hope to win.
Borussia remained one of the three unbeaten teams from this year’s competition after grabbing a late equalizer at the Donbass Arena in Donetsk, in what could have been an undeserved defeat.
The German side looks good to make the most of the away-goals advantage as Jürgen Klopp's men were one of only four sides to post a 100% home record in the group stage despite playing in a tough section, beating Ajax, Real Madrid and Manchester City.
Coach Jürgen Klopp rested some of his regulars in the weekend win over Hannover (3-1), so the likes of Mario Gotze and Lukasz Piszczek should return to the starting line-up. The only doubt is defender Mats Hummels, who was forced to sit out of their last two games.
Shakhtar Donetsk
The Ukrainian champions largely impressed in group stage, beating reigning champions Chelsea to a place in the round of 16, but they’ll have a lot of work to do to make it in order to repeat the performance from 2011 when they made it to the quarter finals on AS Roma’s expense.
Borussia Dortmund made them suffer in their first competitive match of the year, but Shakhtar almost got away with a win if there wasn’t for Mats Hummels’ late header.
I’d say that the quality of Shaktar Donetsk’s players made them avoid the defeat in the first leg, the goals came after impressive personal efforts from Srna and Douglas Costa.
Shahktar should be in way better shape in the second leg though, they’ve just kicked off their domestic season on Friday after a three-month break by trashing Volyn Lutsk in a match that ended 4-1.
There shouldn’t be too many changes from the squad we’ve seen in the first clash, Oleksandr Kucher, who was suspended in the first leg may replace Chygrynsky in the midfield, while Douglas Costa, who scored against Volyn on Friday, might be another starter.
The Betting Verdict
Borussia Dortmund was obviously the better side in the first leg, but mostly because of Shakhtar Donetsk’s lack of competitive games, we’ve seen way better performances from the Ukranians in the group stage.
These three weeks between the two legs should have been enough for coach Mircea Lucescu to bring his side closer to the form they’ve showed in the last part of 2012. The quality is obviously there, the question is whether Shakhtar will keep up the pace with this very fit Borussia Dortmund side.
Borussia is going through a rough patch at the moment, they have come out victorious in just two of their last six games in all competitions. I’d say that the pressure is on them, going out this soon from the UCL would just complete a disappointing season (compared to the previous one of course).
I think Shakhtar Donetsk has the quality to exploit any weaknesses that Borussia may present, having scored 23 goals in their last 12 European games on the road, so the Ukrainians should be good for at least a goal here, which is reasonably priced at 1.5.
I’m going for a higher payout though and will take Shakhtar to score at least twice, they did it at the Stamford Bridge (3-2), were very unlucky to only score once after creating a bunch of opportunities in Turin against Juventus (1-1), so I think it’s worth a shot.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Shakhtar Donetsk
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Shakhtar Donetsk team total - over 1.5 goals at 3.25 at Bet365Confidence: 4/10
