Europa League
2013-02-21 - Liverpool vs Zenit St Petersburg
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Europa League
Thursday 21 February 2013 - Kick Off 8:05pm
This game is live on TV
Liverpool
If Luis Suarez had been a little more clinical in front of goal last week, there would have been every chance that Liverpool would have a lead coming into this second leg. However, Suarez didn't take his chances and Liverpool now have a 0-2 deficit to overcome, a deficit that Brendan Rodgers has asked the fans to help them overcome.
Earlier in the season, Rodgers was making a number of changes to his side for the Europa League games, but I think the competition has become much more important to them with exits in both domestic Cup competitions. The defeat in Russia last week means Liverpool have lost 3 of their last 6 games in this competition, while they have won just 1 of their last 4 at Anfield. Liverpool have lost just 1 of their last 20 home games in the Europa League/UEFA Cup.
Liverpool had failed to win any of 5 games in all competitions before thumping a second string Swansea team 5-0 at Anfield on Sunday. That win means Liverpool have won 4 of their last 5 games at home in all competitions and they have scored at least 3 goals in all of those wins, although failed to score against West Brom in a 0-2 defeat as the exception to those wins.
Fabio Borini is injured and Daniel Sturridge is cup-tied so Luis Suarez will start on his own up front. Philippe Coutinho is also cup-tied, while Martin Skrtel is a doubt.
Zenit St Petersburg
Zenit St Petersburg fell out of the Champions League this season so there was little doubt they had the quality to beat Liverpool, although there has to be a concern with the amount of chances they allowed in the first leg. It has also been clear that the Zenit home form is much more productive than when they are on their travels so there is still plenty of work to be done to book their place in the last-16.
The side had actually gone 9 away games in the Champions League without winning a game until they beat an already qualified Milan at the San Siro in December. Zenit have also won 10 of their last 11 home games in the Europa League, but have lost back to back away games in the same competition and 4 of their last 7 in this competition. Any fears of complacency may also be removed when reminding the Zenit players that they were beaten in this competition by Twente last season with a 3-0 loss on their travels.
They hadn't won played a competitive game since December before last week and Zenit have now won 3 of their last 4 competitive games. Zenit have also won 3 of their last 4 away games, although the one exception was a 3-0 loss at Dinamo Moscow.
It has been suggested that the same starting XI from last week will begin this game at Anfield.
Head to Head
This will be the first competitive game between the sides at Anfield.
Prediction
While it does look like Zenit St Petersburg are in the driving seat in this tie, I have to say I was a little worried with the amount of chances Liverpool created last week. If they are a little more clinical in front of goal, Liverpool could overturn this 2-0 deficit, although a Zenit goal would mean the Reds need to score 4 to go through.
This does look set up for a classic European night at Anfield, but I am not entirely convinced with the way Liverpool defend to think they can get through the tie. However, I am expecting them to win this game at Anfield and I also like the chances of goals in the game.
Ladbrokes are offering 2.60 that Liverpool win the game and there are at least 3 goals scored in the match and I like those odds.
The Pick :
Liverpool 2-1 Zenit St Petersburg
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals to be scored in match (The Total Result) @ 2.60 (Ladbrokes)
