Champions League
2013-02-13 - Shakhtar Donetsk vs Borussia Dortmund
A Sports Betting Pick by ROzsolt
Football : Uefa Champions League: Round of 16
Venue: "Donbass Arena", Donetsk
Wednesday 13th February – Kickoff time: 20:45 GMT+1
Shakhtar Donetsk
The Ukrainian champions survived from a group with Chelsea and Juventus to qualify for the round of 16 for the second time in their history, the first time they overcame AS Roma to reach the quarter finals in 2011.
The fact that they seemed in control of the group stage outcome despite facing sides like Chelsea and Juventus didn’t took me by surprise, Shakhtar have been making steady progress in Europe and in my opinion they can be considered one of the European giants.
Their main problem seems to be the weak domestic competition, winning the Ukrainian Premier League doesn’t seem like much of a challenge so the UCL is the only competition that provides strong opponents for them.
Shakhtar have not played in a competitive game in over two months and despite doing well in the mid-season friendly games that may still be a disadvantage against Borussia.
There won’t be many changes in the squad from what we are used to, Shakhtar sold Willian to Anji for a reported 30m euros, but brought Taison for half that sum from Metalist.
Borussia Dortmund
Unlike their Ukrainian opponents, Borussia did play many competitive games in 2013 and they did it with a lot of success until last weekend’s trashing suffered at home against Hamburg (1-4).
Coach Jurgen Klopp had to come up with some unique solutions since defenders Marcel Schmelzer and Neven Subotic were unavailable and the changes clearly affected their performance.
Klopp decided to play Bender as a left back which left room for the uninspired Nuri Sahin in the midfield, but with Schmelzer back available he will now be able to use Bender and Gundogan in the centre of Borussia’s midfield which is excellent news for the Germans.
Despite the weekend loss, Borussia remains a competitive side, they actually finished the group stage unbeaten even though they were drawn in a group against Real Madrid, Manchester City and Ajax.
The Betting Verdict
The heavy loss to Hamburg does raise some question marks regarding Borussia Dortmund’s current form, but we shouldn’t forget their superb performances on away games in the group stage. Besides winning 4-1 at Ajax, they were only denied victories at City and Madrid by late equalizing goals.
On the other hand we have a Shakthar Donetsk side that had 2 months to prepare for this tie and even though coach Mircea Lucescu praised Borussia’s passing and flowing game he also stated that his team will be in top shape when facing them and will know what to do in order to qualify.
Despite having different playing styles these two sides are evenly matched in my eyes and any of them could qualify to the quarter finals. I think the clash of these styles will provide an eventful game, so both teams to score should be a popular option among punters, but the prices on that are a bit short.
I haven’t bet against Shakhtar Donetsk during the group stage and I don’t feel like it’s time to do it now. If I’d have to pick a winner in this one I would definitely go for Shakthar, I think they’ll manage to create a slight advantage after this first leg, but a draw is always a possibility.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
