Champions League
2013-02-13 - Real Madrid vs Manchester United
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: European Champions League
Wednesday 13 February 2013 - Kick Off 7:45pm
This game is live on TV
Real Madrid
Jose Mourinho declared that the 'whole World is waiting' for this clash between two of the biggest names in World and European football. With Real Madrid being the most successful side in the European Cup, going 12 years since last winning the cup with big ears is far too long and remains the ultimate goal for this season. That does mean they have to beat the current Premier League leaders, but I wouldn't say Real Madrid are intimidated in any manner.
It is clear that Real Madrid are not going to defend their La Liga title from last season having fallen 16 points behind Barcelona with 15 games to play. They do look set to chase down City rivals Atletico who are ahead of them in 2nd place, although Mourinho has been quoted as saying he doesn't believe Real will finish higher than 3rd.
The side did come out of a very tough Group earlier in the competition, although it was a surprise that Real finished behind Borussia Dortmund. They did beat Manchester City in Spain during that section and finished with 2 homes win and a draw at the Santiago Bernebeu in the Group. Real Madrid have lost just 1 of their last 17 home games in the Champions League and they have won 15 of those games.
Inconsistency has been the main problem for Real Madrid all season and there remains a concern that some of the senior players who hold a lot of sway in the dressing room are still not on the same page as manager Mourinho. While Real have won just 2 of their last 5 games in all competitions, the majority of their poor results have come away from home. In fact, Real are unbeaten in 33 home games in all competitions going back over a year and they have won 26 of those games including 5 of their last 6.
Iker Casillas is absent for the home side so Diego Lopez should start in goal. The likes of Pepe, Xabi Alonso, Mezut Ozil, Sami Khedira and Karim Benzema could be restored to the side, but Angel Di Maria is out with an injury.
Manchester United
After losing the Premier League in heartbreaking fashion last season, winning back their crown from local rivals Manchester City was the first port of call for Sir Alex Ferguson and his Manchester United side. They have put themselves in a good position to do so, while some fans are dreaming of the side replicating the class of 1999 and perhaps winning the treble this season.
It won't be easy in the Champions League for Manchester United with this huge tie in front of them and the likes of Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Juventus and Borussia Dortmund in the competition. However, they have opened up a 12 point lead in the Premier League with 12 games to play and have also moved through to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup where they have drawn to play Reading at Old Trafford.
For now, every United fan is concentrating on this game as the side reached the Second Round of the Champions League by topping a Group containing Galatasaray, Sporting Braga and Cluj. United won 2 of their 3 away games in that section, only losing in Galatasaray once they had secured top spot. The side have only lost 2 of their last 12 away games in the Champions League, although they were also beaten comfortably by Athletic Bilbao in the Europa League in Spain last season.
Manchester United can't say they are in bad form coming into this contest as they have extended their unbeaten run to 14 games in all competitions following a win over Everton on Sunday. That result also means United have won 4 in a row ahead of this game in the Spanish capital, although they have found wins more difficult to come by away from home. United are unbeaten in their last 7 away games in all competitions, although they have drawn 3 of their last 5 and needed a late goal to see off Fulham in their last game on their travels.
It seems a full squad will be travelling to Spain for this game and the only real concerns are Jonny Evans and Phil Jones who were both taken off with knocks against Everton. Many are expecting a change to the system for this game with United perhaps going with a 5 man midfield.
Head to Head
This is going to be the fifth time that Real Madrid and Manchester United have met in an European tie- so far Real Madrid have come through 3 times and United have managed to get through once.
The 4 previous meetings in Madrid have ended with 2 wins for Real Madrid and 2 draws.
Both Real Madrid wins have come by the same 3-1 scoreline including the last time they met in the 2003 Champions League Quarter Final.
Prediction
Like many Manchester United fans, this game has been at the back of my mind since the draw for the Second Round was made back in mid-December and the one thought that has remained with me since then is that Real Madrid are going to be far too strong.
Real Madrid are an attacking side that can be very tough to contain, particularly when they play in front of their own fans, and I think they have all the components required to make sure Manchester United have a really tough day in the office.
My heart is longing for a United win in this tie, but my head says it could already been all but completed in the Spanish capital on Wednesday night.
It will take a lot of luck, hard work and perhaps Real Madrid being a touch off from their normal standards in front of goal for United to get something from this game in my opinion. Far too often teams in Europe have exposed a soft underbelly when they have played Manchester United in European competition since the beginning of last season, but the aura of United has helped them get results.
This time, there will be no intimidation factor for Real Madrid and I think the home side will win by at least 2 goals in this one. That is being offered on the English handicap markets by Paddy Power at 2.63, slightly higher than the - 1.5 Asian Handicap offered by Pinnacle and will be my pick for the game.
(Writer's Confession: Every preview I write, I try my best to be correct in my thinking and I want every pick to be a winner... This is one occasion where my heart hopes I am seriously wrong!)
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Real Madrid 3-1 Manchester United
BEST BETTING TIP :
I'll back Real Madrid -1 English Handicap (Three-Way Handicaps) @ 2.63 (Paddy Power)NOTE :
This is like an Asian Handicap -1.5 goal bet - Real Madrid must win by at least two goal margin or the bet is lost.
