Spanish La Liga
2013-01-26 - Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Spain : La Liga
Saturday, 26th January 2013 - Kickoff 9:00pm GMT
BETTING PREVIEW
Valencia are installed as favourites for this match but I have to say that does not make much sense to me. There are so many things going against them that it's just bad value to take them as a selection here (even though they could win).
Sure, Valencia are 7th and Deportivo are 20th in the league, separated by 14 points. Depor have conceded 42 goals, 10 more than Valencia, and have scored 24, 3 less than their high ranked visitors. But, this is a truly terrible spot for Valencia.
Having won the bulk of the dozen or so matches before, Valencia have suffered 3 terrible matchdays at the hands of Real Madrid. First, Valencia went to Madrid in league action and lost 2-0. Then they returned in Copa Del Rey play and were thrashed 5-0, all the goals coming in the first 45 minutes. Only at the very end of the return leg did Valencia get to score a goal, that too via a penalty, against a 9 man Real Madrid who were still blanking them. So 3 games, and just 1 goal, while allowing 8! That's going to have an effect mentally.
Physically too. This game away at Deportivo will be Valencia's 4th match in 11 days! They're playing this game having just faced Madrid 3 days ago. Deportivo have been resting since the 13th, so they've had 6 days. The previous game for them was a further week back, and this is just their 4th game of 2013.
In league action Depor have gone to Real Sociedad and picked up a 1-1 draw and lost narrowly, 2-1 at Osasuna. But, in their only home game since the break, they won here 1-0 against Malaga. This is a fantastic spot for Deportivo, who get a tired wornout dejected Valencia to hopefully take advantage of.
THE BETTING VERDICT
I'm very tempted to pull the trigger on the 3.00 we are being offered on Deportivo. That's certainly where the value is. There is a chance Valencia could bounce back and get something though, perhaps a score draw, meaning we could take that or both teams to score.
I'll take a risk and go with my research. The spot is awful for Valencia and perfect for Depor at home. Let's take the value price on the home win.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Deportivo 2-1 Valencia
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Deportivo La Coruna to win @ 3.00 (Coral)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Consider Deportivo +0AH @ 2.15 (Ladbrokes)
