Italian Serie A
2013-01-27 - Atalanta vs AC Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Italy : Serie A
Sunday, 27th January 2013 - Kickoff 2:00pm GMT
BETTING PREVIEW
Atalanta took full advantage of AC Milan when they were on a bad run and beat them at the San Siro 1-0 back in September. It was only their 2nd win over AC Milan over the lat 20 meetings. No fewer than 13 of those meetings have ended in wins for AC Milan.
Prior to that embarrassing loss, AC MIlan had won the previous 3 meetings by a goal margin, with 2 clean sheets. There were 2-0 and 3-1 wins at the San Siro, while the last meeting here ended 2-0 to AC Milan.
Milan have not done very well this season, and are sitting 6th with 34 points because they have lost 7 games, thanks to conceding 28 goals, only 3 less than Atalanta. However, Atalanta are 13th with 23 points, because their offence cannot bail them out when they concede a few. While Atalanta have scored a measly 19 goals in 21 games, Milan's offence have netted 38 times!
Atalanta do not have recent form going for them. Their lat 9 league games have seen them win just once, and they come into this match off a couple of 1-1 home draws, with Cagliari and Udinese. Sandwiched between those draws are losses without even scoring, at Chievo and Lazio. In contrast, Milan have won all but 2 of their last 8 Serie A matches.
THE BETTING VERDICT
The 2nd half is when AC Milan are going to really come alive, according to stats. They've scored 29 goals in the 2nd half of games, more than any other team in Serie A, and their 16 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches is the highest in the league too. Atalanta have scored just 4 in the last 15 mins of games, worst in the league.
Those stats are important, because whatever is happening, a tired, inferior Atalanta are going to run out of steam, and that is when any AH bets could get covered.
Of course, for some reason we're being offered well above even money just for the away win, so let's stick with that.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Atalanta 1-3 AC Milan
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take AC Milan to win @ 2.17 (Pinnacle)
