Coppa Italia
2013-01-23 - Roma vs Inter Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Italy : Coppa Italia
Wednesday, January 23rd, 2013, 7:45PM GMT
PREVIEW
I tried to narrow down the result too much yesterday. I clearly expected Juventus and Lazio to both score, yet tried to push for the winner and go for a correct margin of victory when the obvious bet was to take both motivated sides to get some sort of reward from the 90 minutes, at least a goal. That's what I'm thinking of going with here but the oddsmaker has priced that bet right down, just like on Sunday.
Roma welcome Inter Milan back for the 1st leg of this Coppa Italia SF, having only just played them on Sunday. Roma led via Totti but Palacio levelled and so it ended. Points shared there, but no one will want to lose this one, as the advantage could shift severely in the other teams balance, so evenly matched are they.
Roma of course have already beaten Inter this season, winning 3-1 at the San Siro. Inter grabbed a draw on Sunday but the last visit was a 4-0 defeat. It is now 5 meetings since Inter have beaten Roma, who got a good look at them and will have a game plan as to how to get themselves the win and some advantage to take to Milan.
Roma scored just 1, but I expected more, as they have been scoring pretty freely at theirs. Inter grabbed a draw but their last 4 road games saw them fail to win, the last 3 without even scoring.
As I said on Sunday, I'm a little concerned about the draw, because the focus will be first to not lose, then to try and get the win.
THE BETTING VERDICT
Again, as I mentioned, Roma have thrown away way too many points from winning positions. They did it again on Sunday, just as I feared.
This has a lot to do with the fact they are scoring a shedload of goals very, very early in games, so are almost always leading in each game, whatever the final outcome. Roma have scored 20 goals in the first 30 mins of games, and 16 in the first 15 minutes of games are both league records. They scored against Inter in the 22nd minute on Sunday.
I was thinking of a bet on Roma's total, or 1st half total, but I think over 90 minutes they will look to win this home game. Their home form matches up very well against Inter's road form, despite Sundays result, and they absolutely must gain an edge before the 2nd leg.
The Pick :
Roma 2-1 Inter Milan
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Roma to win @ 2.00 (PaddyPower)
