Italian Serie A
2013-01-20 - Roma vs Inter Milan
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : Italy : Serie A
Sunday, 20th January 2013 - Kickoff 7:45pm GMT
BETTING PREVIEW
The late game in Serie A sees 4th placed Inter Milan travel to play Roma, who are 6 points behind them in 6th. That lead could be halved if this match goes the way the previous 2 meetings have gone, ending in heavy wins for Roma.
Roma won 3-1 at Inter earlier this season, and the last visit by Inter ended in a crushing 4-0 defeat, so the hosts have that to feel encouraged by. Prior to those 2 wins there were 2 draws so Inter have not defeated Roma in 4 meetings now, the last win coming back in April 2011! And yet they will have to play not just today, but again in midweek, in the Coppa Italia.
Both teams were in action in midweek, with Roma scraping past at Fiorentina 1-0, while Inter laboured to a 3-2 ET win at home against Bologna. I realise Roma have lost 2 of the 3 games played since the break but note that all 3 games have been played away from home. This is Roma's first home game of the new year, so they'll be "up" for it. Their last home game saw them beat Inter's city rivals AC Milan aside, 4-2.
Roma might have lost recent away games, but they are scoring heavily and winning at home. Before AC Milan they won 3-0 against Atalanta. In contrast, Inter are doing nothing in recent away games. They have lost their last 4 road games and the last 3 have seen them fail to even score. They have conceded 34 goals but made up by banging in 43, which is 11 more than Inter have managed. Nothing in the goal difference either. +9 for Roma and +10 for Inter.
I'm a little concerned about the draw, for both teams have just 2 draws each from 20, and Roma have now gone 15 games without a draw! Bit of a worry, but the obvious bets of both teams to score and over 2.5 goals have been priced right down.
THE BETTING VERDICT
Inter come into this banged up, missing 7 first team players, including Cassano, who used to play for Roma. Against the league's top scorers, I cannot recommend a bet on them.
However, Roma have thrown away the 2nd most number of points from winning positions. This has a lot to do with the fact they are scoring a shedload of goals very, very early in games, so are almost always leading in each game, whatever the final outcome. Their 20 goals in the first 30 mins of games, and 16 in the first 15 of games are both league records.
I was thinking of a bet on Roma's total, or 1st half total, but I think over 90 minutes they will look to win this home game. Their home form matches up very well against Inter's road form, and they need to gain a psychological edge before their Coppa Italia clash.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Roma 3-1 Inter Milan
