Eng. Championship
2013-01-12 - Brighton vs Derby
A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted
Football : England : Championship
Saturday, January 12th, 2013, 3:00PM GMT
PREVIEW
Brighton and Derby are 9th and 10th respectively, level on points, although Derby have played a game more. Brighton's win price is over even money, despite the h2h showing Derby failing to even score against them over the last 4 league meetings. Seems like a bit of value here.
I think the oddsmaker is looking at that poor run of 5 league games without a win for Brighton, where they drew here with Nottingham Forest and Millwall in recent games, before falling 3-1 to Watford. That might be affecting the odds. However, that run has ended with 2 very good results, as Brighton picked up 3 points with a 3-0 away win against a much improved Ipswich Town, before causing an upset in the FA Cup, knocking out Premier League side Newcastle 2-0 on the weekend.
The confidence from that win is what I'm relying on. A league away win, scoring a bunch and with a clean sheet, and then knocking out a heavyweight, again without allowing a goal. Derby, as I said, have not scored against them in the last 4 meetings, so defensively I give them the psychological edge to play a better game.
What Derby have done though is allow a fair few goals on the road, and they have trailed in 11 of their away games this season, more than any other Championship side. That has led to them coming here with a poor away record, especially in recent games. I see that their last 7 road games have seen them lose 5 times, with just 1 win. Not good enough.
BETTING VERDICT
I don't see Brighton's suddenly confident and able offence being shut down here, and I think they could score 2, possibly 3 goals. That is enough for a win, and that is what I shall have a wager on.
The Pick :
Brighton 3-1 Derby
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Brighton to win @ 2.05 (Pinnacle)
