NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING PREDICTION - TEXAS A&M @ OKLAHOMA

NCAA Football

2013-01-04 - Texas A&M at Oklahoma

A Sports Betting Pick by Addicted

TEXAS A&M @ OKLAHOMA
American Football : North America : NCAAF : COTTON BOWL
Friday, January 4th, 2013, 8:00PM (1:00AM GMT)

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PREVIEW

Texas A&M and Oklahoma used to play in the Big 12, before the Aggies moved to the much more difficult SEC, where they finished 6-2 this year.

Both teams went 10-2 in the regular season, and are on a run of 5 straight wins. As a result they will meet in the Cotton Bowl in Cowboys Stadium, where the Aggies look to have the crowd on their side. Texas A&M are 3 point favourites.

The oddsmaker expects points in this one, with the total climbing to 72.5 at time of writing. Understandably, considering Texas A&M averaged 45 and Oklahoma 40, but a look at the defensive stats suggests this could easily go under too, as Texas A&M kept opponents to an average of just 22.5 points, while Oklahoma gave up just over 24 per game.

I'll stick to a pick on the side.

Oklahoma have veteran QB Landry Jones leading the team, completing over 65% of his passes for a whopping 3,979 yards with 29 TD passes and just 10 picks. Opposing him will be freshman Johnny Manziel, who completed just over 68% of his passes for 3,419 yards, with 24 TD passes and 8 picks.

You may think Jones is better, but there is a reason Manziel became the first ever freshman to be given the Heisman trophy. The boy can run. Manziel gained 1,181 yards at almost 6.5 yards per carry for 19 TDs. Compare this now to Oklahoma's best rusher, who got just 905 yards at 5.7 yards per carry for 11 TDs.

Oklahoma matched Kansas State's 8-1 record in the Big 12, but lost to KSU 24-19, giving the Wildcats the conference.

Now Oklahoma face an offence just as deadly, with a better QB who can both pass and run the football.

I realise the Oklahoma defensive stats looks almost as good as Texas A&M's. Oklahoma gave up 24.2 point and 378.8 yards per game, while Texas A&M gave up 22.5 points and 389.3 yards per game.

But ... here's the problem.

Oklahoma have been consistently suspect at stopping the ground game. They have allowed an average of 181.1 yards on the ground per game, and that has allowed opponents to score 23 rushing TDs against them. Manziel is going to have a field day to end his magical 1st season.

BETTING VERDICT

One last thing. In case you've sneaked a peek and noticed the h2h favouring Oklahoma, understand that the Sooners 19-11 record, and the 8-1 record in the last 9 meetings came before Manziel arrived on the scene.

With the dual threat Heisman winner, this Texas A&M beat the No.1 team Alabama 29-24, in Alabama! Alabama are going to be playing for a National Championship in a few days, but this is the only team that could beat them in the last 2 years!

I don't give Oklahoma a chance. Take Texas A&M to win, behind another tremendous performance by Manziel that will have us wishing he was a senior about to enter the NFL draft, instead of a freshman contesting only his first season.

The Pick :