English Premier
2013-01-01 - Southampton vs Arsenal
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
Football: English Premier League
Tuesday 1 January 2013 - Kick Off 5:30pm
This game is live on TV
Southampton
It could have been all so different for Southampton who will be starting 2013 as one of the teams in the Premier League relegation zone, although this time last year their fans would have taken this position. However, Southampton blew a 1-3 lead at Stoke City, despite playing against ten men, and could only manage a draw on Saturday.
That result coupled with Wigan Athletic's 0-3 win at Aston Villa dropped Southampton to 18th in the Premier League, although they are just 1 point off the safety positions. They have been fairly solid at St Mary's so far this season as they bring in a 3-3-4 record, scoring 14 goals and conceding 13 in those games.
Southampton have only lost 1 of their last 4 Premier League games and they have picked up 5 points from a possible 12 in that stretch. They had only lost 1 of their previous 8 games at home in all competitions until Southampton were beaten 0-1 by Sunderland in their most recent home game. Before that loss, Southampton had won 2 of their last 3 home games in the League.
Adam Lallana is a big doubt for the home side, but there are no other injury worries ahead of this game.
Arsenal
I had a feeling the rest that Arsenal 'earned' on Boxing Day was going to give them a real edge in their game with Newcastle United and a late barrage of goals suggests that was the case. This game represents another chance for Arsenal to perhaps pick the bones of a Southampton side that will have been vastly disappointed by their late 3-3 draw with Stoke City.
Arsenal's 7-3 win over Newcastle on Saturday moved the side up to 5th in the Premier League table and they are only 3 points behind rivals Tottenham Hotspur in the final Champions League places with an extra game to play. The side have been effective away from home where they are 4-4-2 this season, scoring 14 goals and conceding 8. That means Arsenal have the best away defence statistically this season so far.
The win over Newcastle also means Arsenal have won all 3 games they have played since their shocking Capital One Cup exit at the hands of Bradford City. Arsenal have also bounced back in the Premier League by winning all 4 games since a shocking 0-2 home loss against Swansea. The Gunners have won their last 2 away games at Reading and Wigan Athletic and they are unbeaten in 4 straight away games in the Premier League since their loss at Manchester United.
Per Mertesacker missed the game on Saturday with an illness, but should be available in this one. Abou Diaby and Andre Santos remain sidelined.
Head to Head
Arsenal crushed Southampton 6-1 at the Emirates Stadium earlier this season.
Southampton drew 1-1 the last time they hosted Arsenal back in the 2004/05 season.
Arsenal have won on 3 of their last 6 visits to Southampton, although they have also lost 2 of those games.
Prediction
I really am struggling to find a real angle in this game and I am going to take a very simple pick and back Arsenal to win this game.
All of the other markets seem to be priced up in 'valueless' ways as far as I am concerned and I can see Arsenal winning this in a close, low-scoring game or a close, high-scoring fixture and I don't want to many variables in this bet.
Southampton haven't been an easy task at St Mary's but they have lost to Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, the two best teams they have played here, while sides like Swansea and Norwich City have avoided defeats.
The recent wins at Reading and Wigan Athletic will stand Arsenal in good stead and I think they sneak the win.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Southampton 0-1 Arsenal
